BoE Watch No further stimulus, unless there is a no deal Brexit The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 17 th December should be less eventful than the last one. Indeed, if our more optimistic economic forecasts are even close to being right... 10th December 2020 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch MPC to expand QE in response to second wave of the virus Back in June, we were pretty much alone in forecasting that the MPC would expand quantitative easing (QE) by £100bn at its meeting on 5 th November. That call looks on track, and most other... 28th October 2020 · 11 mins read
BoE Watch When the fog clears more stimulus will be required The initial recovery has been encouraging, but the downside risks remain. We think much more support will eventually be needed in the form of a further £250bn of QE in total (the consensus is £100bn... 10th September 2020 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch MPC may hint more support will be needed We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to vote unanimously to keep interest rates on hold at +0.10% on Thursday 6th August and to continue with, but not extend, quantitative easing (QE). But... 30th July 2020 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch MPC to keep the printing press fired up all year The Bank of England has much more work to do. It will probably start by announcing £100bn more quantitative easing at the meeting on Thursday 18th June, and we expect additional expansions in QE over... 11th June 2020 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch More QE may be coming The Monetary Policy Committee will probably use its policy announcement on Thursday 7th May to send a strong signal that it will continue to stand behind the gilt market. It may even extend... 30th April 2020 · 9 mins read
BoE Watch Bank may build on its huge stimulus package The decisive action taken by the Bank of England in the past two weeks has succeeded in easing some stresses in the financial markets. But if financial conditions continue to tighten between now and... 20th March 2020 · 6 mins read
BoE Watch Evidence of renewed momentum may stay MPC’s hand January’s interest rate decision is shaping up to be one of the closest for some time. While the incoming economic news relating to the end of last year has made the case for an immediate cut, the... 24th January 2020 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch Getting close to rate cuts, but the MPC to sit tight for now If the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) wanted to cut interest rates from 0.75% to 0.50% on Thursday 19th December, the continued weakness of both activity and underlying price pressures means it... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch A loosening bias emerging Unless the headwinds of weak global growth and Brexit uncertainty fade, the next move in interest rates may be down. But the chance of a Brexit deal in January means the majority of the Committee will... 31st October 2019 · 11 mins read
BoE Watch Scope for upside surprise to rate expectations It seems almost certain that the MPC will keep interest rates at 0.75% at its next meeting on Thursday 19th September. The minutes may be slightly more hawkish than they were in August. But the... 12th September 2019 · 9 mins read
BoE Watch Bank may suggest we should ignore its forecasts! Far more interesting than the probable decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave interest rates at 0.75% on Thursday 1st August will be that the MPC may find itself in the unusual... 25th July 2019 · 12 mins read
BoE Watch Markets have fingers in their ears about rate rises There isn’t much chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates from 0.75% at its meeting on Thursday 20th June, but we expect the MPC will use the opportunity to repeat... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC unlikely to see the Brexit delay as a reason to hike If the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) wanted to raise interest rates from 0.75%, the six-month Brexit delay provides it with a window to do so. More likely, though, is that the MPC remains in a state... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Brexit still holding the MPC back As the Brexit circus rumbles on the Monetary Policy Committee’s interest rate announcement on Thursday 21st March will not receive the usual attention. After all, the Committee will keep a low profile... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Policy paralysis While it is guaranteed that the Monetary Policy Committee will leave interest rates at 0.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 7th February, the accompanying Inflation Report may provide some crucial... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
