Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2021)

The rise in retail sales in September means that the trough in consumption is now behind us. We expect retail sales to rebound in Q4 as restrictions relax and a growing number of Australians are able...

29th October 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2021)

The decline in headline inflation in Q3 was entirely driven by base effects. More importantly, the strong rise in underlying inflation will keep pressure on the RBA to keep reducing monetary stimulus.

27th October 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand- Consumer Prices (Q3)

While we think the surge in inflation will start to abate in the year ahead, the strength will surely be worrying the RBNZ, supporting the case for further rate hikes.

18th October 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Sep.)

While employment plunged yet again in September, hours worked started to rebound and the end of lockdowns will result in a rapid recovery in the labour market over coming months.

14th October 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Aug. 2021)

The record trade surplus in August came despite the plunge in iron ore prices in August. The upshot is that net trade should provide a boost to GDP growth in Q3 as domestic demand weakens.

5th October 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.)

House prices have continued to surge despite the recent lockdowns. But we expect house price growth to slow next year as affordability constraints bite and macroprudential limits are imposed.

1st October 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Aug.)

Employment plunged by 1.1% m/m in August, but we still think that the unemployment rate won’t surpass it pre-Delta level over the coming months even as the participation rate rebounds.

16th September 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand GDP (Q2 2021)

The strength in activity in Q2 was partly driven by the travel bubble which burst in Q3 as New Zealand went into lockdown. While we expect domestic demand to recover toward the end of the year...

16th September 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Jul. 2021)

The record trade surplus in July was largely driven by stronger commodity prices which won’t last. But we expect weaker domestic demand to weigh on imports over the coming months which should see...

2nd September 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia GDP (Q2 2021)

The further rise in GDP in Q2 was broadly in line with the RBA’s expectations and we suspect the Bank will press ahead with tapering its asset purchases this month.

1st September 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.)

The drag from the current lockdowns on the housing market won’t last, but we expect house price growth to slow in earnest next year as affordability constraints bite.

1st September 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (Jul 2021)

The decline in retail sales in July highlights the impact that lockdowns are having on the Australian economy. And with lockdowns spreading and intensifying in August, sales will fall further before...

27th August 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Private Capex Survey (Q2)

We estimate that private investment rose by 1.5% q/q in Q2 and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest firms are still keen to invest when lockdowns ease.

26th August 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Jul.)

The further decline in the unemployment rate in July may not last long, but it should be more than enough to convince the RBA to proceed with its plans to taper asset purchases in September.

19th August 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q2)

The subdued 0.4% q/q rise in the wage price index in Q2 underlines that the tight labour market didn’t generate large cost pressures even before the latest virus restrictions.

18th August 2021 · 2 mins read