Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 2021)

The persistent rise in inflation to the highest levels in 30 years will be worrying the RBNZ. That’s why we expect the Bank to hike aggressively in the first half of this year.

26th January 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2021)

The strong rise in underlying inflation at the end of last year means the RBA is all but certain to end its asset purchase scheme at its meeting next week. And with underlying inflation now above the...

25th January 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2021)

The further decline in the Australian unemployment rate in December supports our forecast that the RBA will end its asset purchases in February.

20th January 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Retail Sales/External Trade (Nov. 2021)

November’s data support our view that GDP will surpass its pre-delta level in Q4. But while the strength in retail sales is set to fade in the months ahead as Omicron weighs on consumption, the likely...

11th January 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.)

The easing in house price growth in December will continue in 2022. And we expect further tightening in lending standards and rises in interest rates to cause house prices to fall in 2023.

4th January 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Nov.)

The remarkable recovery in Australia’s labour market following the recent lockdowns suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia will end its asset purchases altogether in February.

16th December 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand GDP (Q3 2021)

The fall in New Zealand’s output in Q3 will have partially unwound in Q4 as lockdowns were gradually eased. And the fact the fall in GDP was much smaller than the RBNZ’s forecast supports our view...

15th December 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Oct. 2021)

While it’s early days, the October trade figures suggest that net trade will turn into a drag on GDP growth yet again as imports rebound after the end of lockdowns.

2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.)

Housing demand remains very strong, but rising interest rates and lending restrictions should result in a further slowdown in house price growth next year.

1st December 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia GDP (Q3 2021)

With private consumption now rebounding strongly as lockdowns have ended, output in states not affected by lockdowns continuing to rise, and capital spending resilient, we expect GDP to surpass its...

1st December 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Retail Sales (Oct. 2021)

The 4.9% m/m jump in retail sales in October brought them very close to their May peak and supports our view that consumption will reverse nearly all of the plunge during the lockdown this quarter.

26th November 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 21)

Private capital expenditure dropped during the recent lockdowns but firms’ forecasts point to a strong rebound over the coming quarters.

25th November 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q3)

The 0.6% q/q rise in the wage price index in Q3 will provide the RBA with some confidence that rates need to remain low in the near term. But we think that wage growth will rise over 2022, putting...

17th November 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Oct.)

The rise in the unemployment rate suggests that the labour market continued to suffer right up until the end of the recent lockdowns. But given the ending of lockdowns in mid-October we expect the...

11th November 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand- Labour Market (Q3 2021)

The decline in the unemployment rate to 3.4% should encourage the RBNZ to hike rates more aggressively than we had previously anticipated in the months ahead.

2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read