Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar. 2022) Retail sales defied the weakness in consumer confidence in March and with the household savings rate still high, we expect consumption to keep expanding at a strong pace. 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2022) The continued tightness in the New Zealand labour market despite the omicron outbreak provides further evidence that the economy is still running hot. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to hike rates by 50... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2022) Inflation surged in Q1 and is on track to surpass 6% later this year, exceeding the levels reached around the GST hike in 2000. With trimmed mean inflation already higher than at the start of previous... 27th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2022) The 1.8% q/q rise in consumer prices in Q1 was broadly in line with the RBNZ’s expectations, which reduces the likelihood of another 50 basis point hike in the OCR in May. But we still think high... 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 2022) The unemployment rate remaining at its joint lowest rate since the 1970s should be enough to keep the RBA on track to begin hiking rates in June. 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) We continue to expect house prices to begin falling across the eight capital cities in 2023. But the price declines in Sydney and Melbourne in March suggest that the downturn could be starting sooner... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Feb. 2022) The further rise in retail sales in February still leaves them a touch below their November peak but is consistent with our forecast of a solid rise in consumption in Q1. 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 2022) The further decline in the Australian unemployment rate takes the labour market closer to full employment, setting the RBA up to hike rates in June. 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2021) The rebound in GDP at the end of last year was larger than the RBNZ was anticipating, which should keep the Bank on its hiking track. And we expect the rebound to have continued in the current quarter... 16th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4 21) Q4’s jump in GDP brought output closer to its pre-virus trend and we think it will get there next quarter already. But with tighter monetary policy looming on the horizon, growth is set to slow before... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Leading indicators remain consistent with solid house price growth, but if the recent moderation turns into an outright slump, the RBA will not hike rates as aggressively as we anticipate. 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 2022) The rebound in retail sales in January suggests that the Omicron wave had a much smaller impact than many had feared and consumption will probably keep rising this quarter. 28th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4 2021) We estimate that private investment rose by a modest 0.7% q/q in Q4, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest investment will strengthen before long. 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4) The Q4 wage data won’t alter the RBA’s view that inflation isn’t sustainably within its 2-3% target band yet, but we still expect the Bank to start hiking in June as inflation surprises to the upside. 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2022) The further rise in Australian employment despite the Omicron outbreak in January highlights the resilience of the Australian labour market and supports our forecast that the RBA will hike rates in... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Dec. 2021) The fall in the trade balance in December is consistent with trade having been a sizable drag on growth at the end of last year. Australia Drop-in: Will soaring inflation prompt the RBA to follow the... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
