Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2022) While inflation picked up in Q2, it wasn’t as strong as we had expected. That suggests that the RBA may opt for another 50bp rate hike at next week’s meeting rather than the 75bp we had been... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2022) The stronger-than-expected rise in consumer prices in Q2 adds some upside risks to our forecast that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lift rates to 3.5%, but we still think that weaker economic... 18th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jun. 2022) The sharp fall in the unemployment rate in June is consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to tighten monetary policy more aggressively than most anticipate. 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (May 2022) The surge in the trade surplus in May suggests that net exports provided an even bigger boost to Q2 GDP growth than we had anticipated. But that boost should fade as the border reopening lifts outward... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) The monthly decline in house prices in June was the largest since 2019 but is unlikely to be the sharpest decline in the current downturn. We think house prices will eventually fall by 15% from their... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (May 2022) The strong rise in retail sales in May highlights the strength in the Australian economy and is consistent with our view that the RBA will continue to hike rates aggressively in the months ahead. 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May 2022) The strong rise in employment in May will keep pressure on the RBA to continue its aggressive hiking cycle in the months ahead. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21 st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2022) The fall in GDP at the start of the year was due to the disruption to activity from the Omicron outbreak. Growth will have rebounded strongly in the current quarter, but we suspect falling house... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr. 2022) While the rise in export values in April was mostly due to rising commodity prices, the further fall in import values suggests that net trade will turn into a boost to GDP growth in Q2 after a huge... 2nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 22) The solid rise in Q1 GDP supports our view that the economy will hold up better in the face of rising interest rates and falling real incomes than most anticipate. 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) The monthly decline in house prices in May is the start of a significant housing downturn as the RBA’s hiking cycle continues. There’s a risk that this prompts the RBA to end its hiking cycle early... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 2022) The fourth consecutive rise in retail sales values in April underlines that consumers are not throwing in the towel in the face of falling real incomes and rising interest rates. 27th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q1 2022) We estimate that private investment fell by 1.3% q/q in Q1, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest investment will strengthen before long. 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr. 2022) While the unemployment rate held steady at a 48-year low in April, the slowdown in employment growth and the sluggishness of wage growth will probably convince the RBA to hike rates by 25bp next month... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) The unchanged pace of quarterly wage growth in Q1 should ensure the RBA won’t accelerate its hiking cycle just yet. But with the labour market still tightening and inflation still rising, we think... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Mar. 2022) The rise in the trade balance in March won’t be enough to prevent trade from being a significant drag on growth in Q1. In the months ahead higher export prices due to the war in Ukraine should lift... 5th May 2022 · 2 mins read
