Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) Australia’s house prices have now fallen by 5% since the start of the current downturn and rapidly worsening affordability suggests they will fall by another 10%. 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Monthly CPI Indicator & Job Vacancies (Aug. 2022) The inaugural release of Australia’s Monthly CPI Indicator showed that inflation eased a bit in August, though we still expect it to approach 8% in Q4. Meanwhile, the first drop in job vacancies since... 29th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug. 2022) The eight consecutive rise in retail sales in August will convince the RBA to hike rates by another 50bp at next week’s meeting. And with the savings rate still well above pre-virus levels, retail... 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2022) While the first rise in Australia’s unemployment rate since last year’s Delta lockdown should be followed by a renewed fall, it will encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to slow the pace of... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2022) Despite a large rise in Q2, New Zealand’s GDP remains well below its pre-virus trend and that shortfall will widen as the surge in interest rates weighs on activity. 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul. 2022) The record fall in Australia’s trade balance partly reflects bad weather that held back coal exports, but the recent fall in the iron ore price hasn’t fully fed through so export values will continue... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2 22) The 0.9% q/q rise in Australia’s Q2 GDP was broadly in line with the RBA’s expectations and won’t move the needle in terms of the size of the next rate hike. 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q2 2022) The continued rise in machinery and equipment investment in Q2 won’t offset a plunge in construction investment, but firms’ optimistic capital plans suggest this will prove short-lived. 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) House prices are falling at the fastest pace in four decades. While leading indicators of housing market activity remain consistent with a mild downturn, rapidly worsening affordability due to soaring... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jul. 2022) Not only did retail sales rise for the seventh consecutive month in July, the strong size of the increase strongly suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates by another 50bp next... 29th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul. 2022) We wouldn’t read too much into the first drop in employment since last year’s lockdowns. Indeed, the continued tightening of the labour market should encourage the RBA to press ahead with another 50bp... 18th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2) Wage growth surpassed its pre-virus peak in Q2 and will jump above 3% this quarter due to a surge in the minimum wage and a tightening labour market. 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jun. 2022) The surge in Australia’s trade surplus to yet another record-high in June suggests that net exports will boost Q2 GDP growth by around 1%-pt though that tailwind will fade before long. 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Q2 2022) The first rise in New Zealand's unemployment rate since mid-2020 suggests that the RBNZ's hiking cycle is nearing its end. Indeed, we expect the RBNZ to start cutting interest rates next year. 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Allowing for seasonal swings, house prices in July fell as much as they did at the height of the 2017-2019 downturn. With soaring mortgage rates weighing on affordability, prices will continue to fall... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jun. 2022) The sixth consecutive rise in retail sales in June underlines that households are weathering the headwinds from falling house prices, soaring inflation and surging mortgage payments well and we... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
