Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) November’s labour market data are either a major mirage or a minor miracle. We think that the truth lies somewhere in between, with conditions improving but not quite as much as the figures suggest. 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Despite the modest fall back in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in December, from 101.7 in November to 100.8, we don’t expect this to be the beginning of a downward trend as the buoyant... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct.) The acceleration in retail sales growth in October is very timely for retailers, who will be rubbing their hands at the idea that households are becoming more willing to open their wallets ahead of... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) The Australian economy isn’t as strong as the surge in GDP in the third quarter suggests, as a large boost to growth from net exports hides the worrying contraction in domestic demand. While GDP... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Current Account & Government Finances (Q3) The latest data on net exports and government spending/investment suggest that GDP growth in the third quarter was a little bit stronger than we thought at around 0.9% q/q. This supports the... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q3) The plunge in private capital expenditure in the third quarter suggests that GDP growthwas a little weaker than we had been expecting and, more worryingly, that non-mininginvestment is not filling the... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) The strength of Australia’s labour market in October builds on other evidence that suggests the economy has made some big leaps forward in recent months. It diminishes the chances of further rate cuts... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The further rise in consumer confidence in November, to a six-month high, suggests that households are playing a part in the recent “firming” in activity. 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Sep.) September's retail sales and international trade figures support the RBA's view that economic conditions have recently "firmed". They suggest that GDP growth may have rebounded from the dismal 0.2% q... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) The stark deterioration in labour market conditions in New Zealand in the third quarter pretty much guarantees that the RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% at the meeting in December, from 2.75% now. What's... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand CPI (Q3) The CPI data for the third quarter were not weak enough to make a rate cut at the RBNZ's policy meeting in late October a certainty. But with the full effects of the recent slowdown in economic growth... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Sep.) While the fall in employment in September is unlikely to significantly alter the RBA's view of the economy, we think that a sustained weakening in the labour market will contribute to the RBA cutting... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2) The disappointingly soft rebound in GDP in the second quarter supports our below consensus forecasts that the economy will grow by just 2.0% this year and that the RBNZ will cut interest rates from 2... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Aug.) Another healthy gain in employment in August, as well as a slight fall in the unemployment rate, continued the strong run of Australia’s labour market. The slowdown in GDP growth this year may still... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2) Australia's economy slowed sharply in the second quarter, increasing the chances that growth will fall short of the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts for this year and next. Given this, rate cuts... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Jul.) Another sizeable gain in Australian employment in July has continued the remarkably strong run of recent months. However, today's data also showed a sharp rise in labour force participation, which has... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
