Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The rebound in consumer confidence following the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates in May was sustained in June. But since rate cuts tend to boost sentiment for only a couple of months, confidence... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.) April’s international trade and retail sales data suggest that the spectacular rise in GDP in the first quarter is unlikely to be sustained in the second. Despite the narrowing in the trade deficit... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) The surge in GDP in the first quarter means the RBA won’t be in a rush to cut interest rates again. But growth will slow during the rest of this year and we still think that continued low inflation... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q1) Although the plunge in real private capital expenditure in the first quarter has led us to revise down our estimate for first-quarter GDP growth, from 0.8% q/q to 0.6%, the survey probably isn’t weak... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr.) Since the labour market remained healthy enough in April, the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t need to hit the panic button and cut interest rates again at the next meeting in June. We still think... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (May) The rebound in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in May appears to be a result of the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates last week, but history suggests this support may only be temporary. 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar.) March’s international trade and retail sales data suggest that a boost to GDP growth from net trade probably more than offset an easing in consumption growth in the first quarter. We estimate that... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1) The sharper-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate in the first quarter reversed half of the large decline at the end of last year and suggests that the previous improvement was more a mirage... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) The sharp fall in underlying inflation to 1.5% in the first quarter is a game-changer for the Reserve Bank of Australia and supports our long-held view that interest rates will fall from 2.0% now to 1... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand CPI Inflation (Q1) The rebound in CPI inflation in the first quarter increases the chances that the RBNZ won’t cut interest rates to 2.0% at next week’s policy meeting and will instead wait until the meeting in June. By... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar.) The 26,100 rebound in employment in March is something of a relief given the stagnation in the previous three months. With the unemployment rate falling from 5.8% to 5.7%, the labour market appears in... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The further fall in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in April suggests that the apparent weakness in consumption growth in the first quarter may continue into the second. It also hints that... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Feb.) The unexpected widening in the international trade deficit in February and revisions to past data suggest that GDP growth may have slowed sharply in the first quarter. This makes it more important for... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & Building Approvals (Feb.) Although February’s building approvals data were broadly in line with expectations, retail sales were much weaker than expected and suggest that real consumption growth may have slowed notably in the... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The recent stagnation in employment is probably just payback from the unjustified strength late last year rather than a sign that fears over the global economy have prompted businesses to postpone... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4) The surprisingly strong rise in GDP in the fourth quarter of last year won’t prevent the RBNZ from cutting interest rates from 2.25% to 2.00% in the coming months, although it does make it a little... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
