Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Dec.) The surge in the trade surplus to a record high in December shows that the rise in commodity prices is boosting the economy and it has dramatically reduced the chances that Australia fell into a... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4) While employment growth remained decent in the fourth quarter, a sharp increase in the labour force meant that the unemployment rate jumped back above 5.0%. This won’t worry the RBNZ too much, but the... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The sharp rise in both headline and core CPI inflation in the fourth quarter is enough to prevent the RBNZ from cutting interest rates further, but it’s not enough to prompt it to raise interest rates... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4) The rebound in headline inflation in the fourth quarter of last year has been baked in the cake for some time, so the real news is that underlying inflation hardly budged at all. A continuation of... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec.) While the labour market improved in December from the weakness of the third quarter, it remained worryingly fragile. This is one reason to expect 2017 to be another disappointing year for the overall... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence remained essentially unchanged in January, which was a disappointing result given that local equity prices have recently risen rapidly. That said, confidence... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Nov.) While the slower-than-expected growth in retail sales in November does suggest that the household sector may have lost a bit of momentum late in the fourth quarter, the strong start to the quarter... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Nov.) The first trade surplus since March 2014 isn’t quite as good as it looks as it’s due to a surge in the prices of exports rather than the volume of exports. This means that net exports were probably... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) The further strengthening in economic growth in the third quarter increases the chances that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand won’t need to cut interest rates further. But it is probably too soon to... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The improvement in jobs growth in recent months provides further evidence that the fall in GDP in the third quarter was a blip rather than anything more worrying. But while the lower underemployment... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The fall in consumer confidence to an eight-month low in December shows that households have been spooked by the decline in GDP in the third quarter. While confidence is still consistent with a decent... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Business Confidence (Oct.) House Prices (Q3) The rebound in business confidence in November supports our view that Australia is unlikely to fall into its first recession in 25 years in the fourth quarter. But the ABS house price data for the... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Oct.) The unexpected widening in the trade deficit in October is worrying as it implies net exports may be a big drag on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. After yesterday’s news that GDP contracted in the... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3) The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in the third quarter is unlikely to mark the start of a recession as GDP will probably rebound in the fourth quarter. Even so, it highlights that the economy is not strong... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected rise in retail sales in October will be a welcome sight for retailers in the lead up to the all-important Christmas spending period and suggests that the probable slowdown... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q3) The weak third-quarter private capital expenditure survey adds to other evidence that suggests the economy may not have grown at all in the third quarter. It also confirms that the transition towards... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
