Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jul.) While the Westpac measure of consumer confidence nudged up in July, it remains below the long-run average and is consistent with a further slowdown in real consumption growth ahead. 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (May) The trade surplus bounced back in May as coal exports returned to more normal levels following a sharp fall in April as a result of disruptions caused by Cyclone Debbie. As such, at this stage it... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (May) The stronger than expected rise in retail sales values in May, alongside the surge in sales in April, suggests that real consumption growth accelerated in the second quarter. That said, we doubt this... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia ABS House Prices (Q1) The first quarter of this year will probably go down in history as the point at which house price inflation peaked. Policymakers have engineered the slowdown that appears to be underway, but there’s... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) The much stronger than anticipated rise in employment in May and the fall in the unemployment rate to a four-year low will go some way to quashing growing talk of the chance of another interest rate... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1) The weaker-than-expected rise in GDP in the first quarter means that GDP growth this year is likely to be closer to 3.0% than our previous forecast of 3.5%. While that would still be a fairly decent... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The further fall in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in June to its lowest level since April 2016 will add to growing concerns about the outlook for consumer spending. On past form... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr.) The plunge in the international trade surplus to a six-month low of $0.6bn in April won’t last long as it was almost entirely due to the fall in coal exports caused by Cyclone Debbie, most of which... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) The small 0.3% q/q rise in GDP in the first quarter won’t worry the RBA too much as some of it was due to the temporary influence of the severe weather. Nonetheless, we believe that GDP growth will be... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q1) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The private capital expenditure survey for the first quarter showed that mining investment is becoming a smaller drag on GDP growth, while the leap in retail sales in April overstates the health of... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr.) The labour market is not weak enough to prompt the RBA to cut interest rates again, but nor is it strong enough to trigger a large enough rise in wages and spending that would prompt the RBA to raise... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wages (Q1) & Consumer Confidence (May) Record low wage growth suggests that underlying inflation will stay below the RBA’s target range for another year or two yet and it goes some way to explaining why households aren’t particularly happy... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar.) The latest retail sales data were much weaker than most had anticipated and will add to growing concerns about the health of the household sector. In particular, the sizeable slowdown in real retail... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Mar.) The international trade surplus is well past its peak and will probably continue to fall in the coming months. What’s more, the nominal surplus in the first quarter won’t prevent net exports from... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1) While employment growth strengthened in the first quarter and the unemployment rate dropped back below 5.0%, wage growth remained stubbornly low. We believe that wage growth will remained fairly muted... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) Underlying inflation in Australia is by no means strong but, when coupled with the RBA’s financial stability concerns, it doesn’t appear to be weak enough to prompt the RBA to cut interest rates... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
