Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q2) We suspect that the continued stagnation in real wages in the second quarter will contribute to an easing in consumption growth this year, while the absence of a meaningful rise in nominal wage growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jun./Q2) Households appear to be coping well with the hit to their real spending power from rising petrol prices and the hit to their net wealth from falling house prices. But with house prices starting to... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The recent fall in the Australian dollar may mean that over the next year the external sector will give the economy a bigger helping hand. But in the second quarter, it looks as though net exports... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The acceleration in the housing downturn in July should make the RBA and some other analysts sit up and take notice. What’s more, the worst is yet to come. Our relatively bearish forecast that prices... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q2) Although the labour market remains fairly healthy and employment is still within the RBNZ’s measures of the “maximum sustainable level”, the rise in the unemployment rate in the second quarter coupled... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q2) The rise in headline inflation to back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range for only the first time in 15 months was only possible because of a leap in petrol prices. There is hardly any price pressure... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The labour market is improving quicker than the RBA expected, but it is probably the case that the unemployment rate would have to fall below 5.0%, other measures of spare capacity would have to... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q2) The small strengthening in underlying price pressures in the second quarter is unlikely to make the RBNZ any keener to raise interest rates when it is becoming clearer that economic growth is slowing... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (May) It looks as though a rebound in consumption growth will broadly offset a weakening in the external sector in the second quarter to keep the Australian economy cruising along nicely in the second... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) The Reserve Bank of Australia probably isn’t too concerned by the further small fall in house prices in June. But the clear risk is that rising mortgage rates and tighter credit conditions prompt... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) GDP growth is by no means falling off a cliff, but the end of the migration and housing booms have already caused a marked slowdown and they probably mean growth will ease to just 2.0% next year... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) While the unemployment rate edged down in May, the underutilisation rate held steady suggesting that there is still plenty of slack in the labour market. And in his speech yesterday, Governor Philip... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.) While the modest rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in June is encouraging, we remain cautious about the outlook for consumption growth. 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr.) After having been a big factor behind the strong rise in GDP in the first quarter, April’s international trade data suggest that net exports won’t be as supportive in the second quarter. So just one... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) Australia stands out as one of the few advanced economies that strengthened at the start of the year. But with households struggling even before the Royal Commission has prompted tighter credit... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr.) After stalling in March, the stronger than anticipated rise in retail sales in April was welcome news. Nevertheless, with household budgets still under pressure, we continue to expect consumption... 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
