Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) Continued solid growth in export volumes suggests that the trade war isn’t yet acting as a major drag for Australia’s export sector. In fact, we think that the weaker exchange rate will result in a... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) The continued fall in house prices in October is consistent with our view that prices will ultimately drop by at least 12%, making the current downturn the longest and deepest in Australia’s modern... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q3) The drop in inflation in the third quarter back below the 2-3% target rate won’t frighten the RBA too much, but it does look more like a scary Halloween trick than a treat. We believe the RBA will... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) Whether or not the decline in the unemployment rate in September to the RBA’s estimate of the natural rate of 5.0% prompts the Bank to raise interest rates sooner depends on what happens to wage... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q3) The jump in inflation from 1.5% in Q2 to 1.9% in Q3 was largely driven by higher energy prices and won’t allow the RBNZ to conclude that underlying price pressures are strengthening. While Q3’s data... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The rebound in retail sales in August provides further evidence that households are still proving reasonably resilient to low income growth and falling house prices. But with house prices falling at... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The small rise in the international trade surplus in August provides more evidence that the US-China trade war is not affecting Australia’s external sector. In fact, the recent weakening in the... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The largest monthly fall in house prices since the global financial crisis underlines that the current downturn may well prove to be the longest and deepest in Australia’s modern history. 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Temporary respite from an easing trend The solid rise in GDP in the second quarter will give the RBNZ more confidence in its view that GDP growth will rise back above 3.0% next year. In contrast, we believe that low confidence, a soft... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The labour market is edging closer to the conditions that are necessary to trigger faster wage growth, but it may be another couple of years yet before it gets there. 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul.) It looks as though the contribution to real GDP growth in the third quarter from net exports will be similar to the 0.1 percentage point added in the second quarter. But the near-stagnation in imports... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q2) The surge in GDP growth in the first half of the year meant that the Australian economy notched up 27 years without a recession in style. But with house prices falling, credit conditions tightening... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) It's become more likely that GDP growth in the second quarter was a bit stronger than we have been expecting, but the stagnation in retail sales values in July suggests that consumption may have lost... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) With the full effects of tighter credit conditions and rising mortgage rates yet to be felt, the current housing downturn will probably end up being the longest and deepest in Australia’s modern... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q2) & Building Approvals (Jul.) Just 18 months after it got going, the recovery in private investment appears to be running out of steam. This partly explains why we estimate that GDP in the second quarter may have risen by just 0.5... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) The surprise decline in employment July isn’t a big concern as other evidence suggests the economy has not stalled. But even if the labour market were to shift back into top gear in the coming months... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
