Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q4) Inflation remained below the lower end of the RBA’s target range in the fourth quarter and we think it won’t rise within the target band any time soon. And if GDP growth slows as sharply as we... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) The decent rise in employment in December shows that the housing downturn isn’t having a major impact on the labour market yet. But we expect domestic demand to slow sharply this year so jobs growth... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) While inflation remained just below target in Q4, it will probably fall further over coming months as the full impact of the recent drop in the oil price has yet to be felt. However, the RBNZ won’t be... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) While the solid rise in retail sales values in November suggests that households are still coping well with falling house prices and sluggish incomes gains, we think that consumption growth will slow... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The trade surplus will probably rebound in December but will expect net trade will make a negative contribution to Q4 GDP growth. 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) House prices fell the most in December since the current downturn started and a further deterioration in the balance between supply and demand suggests that prices in Melbourne and Sydney will keep... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The solid rise in employment in November will give the Reserve Bank of Australia renewed confidence inits optimistic forecasts following the disappointing Q3 GDP data. But labour market slack is... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q3) While GDP growth softened in the third quarter early signs suggest growth may be a little firmer in Q4 so we doubt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be too concerned. But we expect GDP growth to... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) Household spending isn’t falling off a cliff just yet but we still think that the downturn in the housing market will restrain consumption growth before long. Meanwhile, net trade may turn into a drag... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) It would be tempting to blame the slowdown in GDP growth in the third quarter on temporary factors. But we believe that the full effects of falling house prices and tighter credit conditions haven’t... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) We suspect the decline in house prices in the eight capital cities is going to continue and house prices will go on to eventually fall by at least 12%. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q3) The fall in private capital expenditure wasn’t as bad as the headline suggests but a slowdown in GDP growth in the third quarter will be hard to avoid. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The unemployment rate remained at a six-year low in October and will probably fall a little further over coming months. However, we still think that wage growth will only pick up slowly and the RBA... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q3) The increase in annual wage growth from 2.1% in Q2 to 2.3% in Q3 is nothing to get excited about as it was partly driven by an increase in the minimum wage. What’s more, subdued growth in real wages... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q3) The dramatic fall in the unemployment rate to 3.9% in the third quarter should encourage the Reserve Bank and suggests that they may raise rates earlier than we had anticipated. However, we still... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Sep./Q3) The subdued rise in real retail sales in the third quarter means that consumer spending growth probably slowed. While falling petrol prices should provide some relief to households soon, we think that... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
