Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4 2022)

Private investment picked up firmly last quarter and although firms expect capital spending to remain relatively healthy, their projections are consistent with a slowdown in real terms this financial...

23rd February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q4)

With the risk of a wage-price spiral contained, we expect the RBA to start cutting interest rates by year-end.

22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2023)

The weakness in January’s labour market data shows that rapid rate hikes are starting to cool activity, but with inflation still far too high that won’t prevent the RBA from tightening policy for a...

16th February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Dec. 2022)

Export volumes probably edged up last quarter while import volumes plunged so net trade should provide a boost to Q4 GDP growth.

7th February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (Dec. 2022)

Retail sales volumes declined last quarter on the back of a weaker-than-expected end to 2022. A solid increase in services spending means overall consumption should still have risen at a decent clip...

31st January 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q4/Dec. 22)

Inflation rose further last quarter and remains far too high for the RBA’s liking. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our non-consensus forecast that the Bank will lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April.

25th January 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 2022)

The Q4 CPI data revealed a smaller rise in non-tradeable prices than the RBNZ had expected but, with those prices still rising at a worrying pace, it is not clear that this alone will be enough for...

24th January 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2022)

The labour market struggled in December and the unemployment rate has started to rise. With economy activity set to slow sharply, t won’t be long before unemployment increases in earnest.

19th January 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Nov. 22)

The trade balance widened to a five-month high in November even though import prices outpaced export prices last quarter, which suggests that net trade provided a sizeable boost to Q4 GDP growth.

12th January 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

CPI, Retail Sales & Job Vacancies (Nov. 22)

While falling job vacancies point to rising unemployment, the resilience in retail sales coupled with stubbornly high inflation will prompt the RBA to press ahead with another 25bp rate hike next...

11th January 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Household Spending Indicator (Nov.)

The slowdown in household spending in November largely reflects base effects from the ending of lockdowns in 2021. Even so, the data suggest that household spending may have started to fall last...

10th January 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Nov. 22)

The slowdown in household spending in November largely reflects base effects from the ending of lockdowns in 2021. Even so, the data suggest that household spending may have started to fall last...

10th January 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.)

Australia’s house prices have never fallen so fast in such a short period of time and the risks to our forecast of a 15% peak-to-trough fall are shifting to the downside.

3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Nov. 22)

With employment jumping in November, the labour market is still tightening, The upshot is that the RBA will hike rates more sharply than most anticipate over the coming months

15th December 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand GDP (Q3 22)

The huge jump in Q3 GDP will prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to press ahead with another 75bp hike in February, adding to our conviction that a recession lies ahead.

14th December 2022 · 2 mins read