Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q1)

The strength in wage growth in Q1 was partly due to one-off factors which will fade in the year ahead, but we still think the tightening in the labour market will see wage growth rise in earnest...

19th May 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Retail Sales (Mar./Q1 2021)

The drop in real retail sales in Q1 suggests that the recovery in consumption slowed last quarter. And with the vaccination drive still slow, we think that consumption will only return to pre-virus...

10th May 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1)

The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.7% in New Zealand is consistent with our view that a continued tightening in the labour market will prompt the RBNZ to hike rates next year.

5th May 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2021)

The weakness in underlying inflation in Q1 is consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce a third $100bn round of asset purchases before long. And it suggests that the...

28th April 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q1)

We think underlying inflation will remain close to the RBNZ’s target for the foreseeable future which supports our view that the RBNZ will hike rates next year.

21st April 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Labour Market (Mar.)

The continued tightening of the labour market in March means that a further extension of quantitative easing isn't a done deal, but amid weak wage growth and inflation we still expect the RBA to press...

15th April 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.)

House prices are surging but forward indicators somewhat mixed and we suspect the pace of price growth will ease in the second half of this year.

1st April 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - International Trade & Retail Sales (Feb.)

Retail sales and the trade surplus declined in February but while we still expect consumption to rise in Q1, net trade may have been a drag on growth.

1st April 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Feb.)

The surge in employment in February is consistent with our view that the Australian labour market is tightening much faster than most expect.

18th March 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand GDP (Q4 2020)

The solid decline in activity in Q4 means that a second recession is imminent as GDP is bound to decline in Q1.

17th March 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - International Trade (Jan.)

Retail sales and the trade balance rose in January and while we expect retail sales to be subdued in the months ahead, export values may have further to rise.

4th March 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia GDP (Q4)

The 3.1% q/q rise in Q4 GDP left output just 1.1% below pre-virus levels and we think it will surpass that threshold by Q2.

3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)

House prices are now surging which poses an upside risk to our forecast that prices will rise 10% between January and December this year.

1st March 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4)

We estimate that private investment rose by 2.6% q/q in Q4, and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest investment is set to surge this year.

25th February 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q4)

The jump in wages in Q4 was partly due to temporary wage cuts implemented during the pandemic unwinding, but it supports our view that wage growth will rebound more sharply than most anticipate.

24th February 2021 · 2 mins read