Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 7.0% y/y, in February may be a sign that the intensification of loadshedding in recent months is fuelling price pressures. So long as renewed... 22nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jan.) & Nigeria CPI (Feb.) January’s hard activity figures out of South Africa came in stronger than expected, reducing the chances of a technical recession. But momentum remains extremely weak. Elsewhere, the rise in inflation... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) South Africa’s GDP fell by a sharper-than-expected 1.3% q/q in Q4, and the broad-based weakness in economic activity is unlikely to improve any time soon as severe power cuts and fiscal consolidation... 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month provides further signs that the country’s electricity crisis is taking a heavy toll on the economy. And the jump in the prices component... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s economy recorded a surprisingly large pick-up in GDP growth, to 3.5% y/y, in Q4 but recent disruptions caused by the demonetisation process are likely to have dampened growth at the start of... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Dec.) & Nigeria CPI (Jan.) December’s hard activity figures out of South Africa point to a mild contraction in GDP in Q4 and indicate that weakness in the economy is spreading beyond industrial sectors. Elsewhere, the pick-up... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation in South Africa continued to decline, to 6.9% y/y in January, but we think that the Reserve Bank will err on the side of delivering a final 25bp rate hike to (7.50%) at the next policy... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained essentially unchanged, at 53.0, in January, but while the breakdown provided mixed messages, we think that the underlying picture for the manufacturing sector... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Nov.) November’s hard activity figures out of South Africa were a mixed bag, but we think that weakness in industrial sectors will increasingly dwarf any strength elsewhere especially as power cuts and... 18th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in South Africa came in softer than expected, at 7.2% y/y, in December, and with core inflation ticking down as well, we think that a slowdown in the tightening cycle is nailed on. We expect... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) December inflation data out of Nigeria, at 21.3% y/y, came in below expectations, and provided a first sign that inflation passed its peak. Policymakers are likely to latch onto the fall in inflation... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked up for a fourth consecutive month, to 53.1, in December but the backdrop of persistent power cuts, tight policy and a global recession means that we think that... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) November inflation data out of Nigeria came in stronger than expected, with the headline rate picking up to 21.5% y/y and price pressures increasing in m/m terms as well. Together with our expectation... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Oct.) October’s hard activity data out of South Africa showed the economy’s strong performance in Q3 did not last into Q4. Industrial sectors, in particular, faltered. As headwinds mount, we expect a sharp... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) Inflation in South Africa eased a bit more than expected, to 7.4% y/y, in November and there were encouraging signs that core price pressures are fading. The figures will provide room for the Reserve... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy rebounded in Q3, with a 1.6% q/q expansion, but the underlying picture was less rosy as growth was supported by a build-up of inventories; household spending contracted... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read