Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Q1 GDP figures released today, showing that growth in Nigeria slowed to 4.0% y/y, support our view that the economy will perform poorly in 2015. Growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors was subdued... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Mar.) The surprisingly rapid expansion of South Africa’s manufacturing output by 3.8% y/y in March is unlikely to signal a significant turnaround for the embattled sector. We expect that labour disputes and... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenya CPI Inflation (Apr.) Kenyan inflation rose by a stronger-than-expected 7.1% y/y in April, and we believe that weak food production and the depreciation of the shilling will increase inflationary pressures later in the... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) South African inflation picked up slightly in March, to 4.0%, but we expect that a combination of energy prices hikes and a weak rand will increase inflationary pressures going forward. Headline... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI Inflation (Mar.) Nigerian inflation picked up in March, due in large part to the weakness of the naira. While the currency has stabilised in recent weeks, we expect that the effects of its previous sharp depreciation... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Production (Feb.) Data released today show that South African mining and manufacturing production was comparatively strong in February, but we believe that these figures provide a misleadingly optimistic view of the... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Last month’s South African manufacturing PMI provides further evidence that the rebound in growth seen at the end of 2014 was temporary and that the economy struggled once again in the first quarter... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in South African inflation to a four-year low of 3.9% y/y was driven entirely by a further drop in petrol inflation. But core inflation remained strong and the latest fall in the rand is... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) The sharp fall in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q4, from 5.8% to 5.1% of GDP, was driven almost entirely by a fall in imports, which reflects lower energy costs. Nonetheless, given the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jan.) The fall in South African manufacturing and mining output in January supports our view that the rebound in economic growth seen in Q4 was only temporary. We expect GDP growth to return to a more... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) February’s South African manufacturing PMI figure of 47.6 was the weakest in eight months and, on past form at least, points to a 4% y/y contraction in manufacturing output. Admittedly, the sharp fall... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) South Africa’s economy grew at its strongest pace in a year Q4, but this was largely a result of a temporary rebound following weakness in previous quarters, and so is unlikely to be sustained... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.) December’s rise in South African manufacturing production showed that the sector ended the year on a high. There are also signs that manufacturers started this year fairly strongly. Although growth is... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) January’s PMI figure of 54.2 was the strongest in 16 months, and points to manufacturing growth of about 5% y/y. Nonetheless, Kagiso, which publishes the data, acknowledged that issues with the... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade (Dec.) The surprisingly large improvement in South Africa’s trade balance in December underlines the degree to which the country is benefiting from lower oil prices. This should ease pressure on the rand... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.) The sharp slowdown in South African inflation, to 5.3% y/y, in December was driven almost entirely by the impact of lower oil prices on petrol inflation. Core price pressures remain strong. But with... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
