Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI Inflation (Mar.) Nigerian inflation picked up in March, due in large part to the weakness of the naira. While the currency has stabilised in recent weeks, we expect that the effects of its previous sharp depreciation... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Production (Feb.) Data released today show that South African mining and manufacturing production was comparatively strong in February, but we believe that these figures provide a misleadingly optimistic view of the... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Last month’s South African manufacturing PMI provides further evidence that the rebound in growth seen at the end of 2014 was temporary and that the economy struggled once again in the first quarter... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in South African inflation to a four-year low of 3.9% y/y was driven entirely by a further drop in petrol inflation. But core inflation remained strong and the latest fall in the rand is... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) The sharp fall in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q4, from 5.8% to 5.1% of GDP, was driven almost entirely by a fall in imports, which reflects lower energy costs. Nonetheless, given the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jan.) The fall in South African manufacturing and mining output in January supports our view that the rebound in economic growth seen in Q4 was only temporary. We expect GDP growth to return to a more... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) February’s South African manufacturing PMI figure of 47.6 was the weakest in eight months and, on past form at least, points to a 4% y/y contraction in manufacturing output. Admittedly, the sharp fall... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) South Africa’s economy grew at its strongest pace in a year Q4, but this was largely a result of a temporary rebound following weakness in previous quarters, and so is unlikely to be sustained... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.) December’s rise in South African manufacturing production showed that the sector ended the year on a high. There are also signs that manufacturers started this year fairly strongly. Although growth is... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) January’s PMI figure of 54.2 was the strongest in 16 months, and points to manufacturing growth of about 5% y/y. Nonetheless, Kagiso, which publishes the data, acknowledged that issues with the... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade (Dec.) The surprisingly large improvement in South Africa’s trade balance in December underlines the degree to which the country is benefiting from lower oil prices. This should ease pressure on the rand... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.) The sharp slowdown in South African inflation, to 5.3% y/y, in December was driven almost entirely by the impact of lower oil prices on petrol inflation. Core price pressures remain strong. But with... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Ghana GDP (Q3) & Kenya Interest Rate Ghana’s GDP growth picked up in Q3, to 5.1% y/y, following a sharp slowdown in Q2. But given the declines in commodity prices, and tight monetary and fiscal policy, we think that the economy will grow... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The decline in December’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector ended 2014 on a low point. Although it probably contributed strongly to GDP growth over Q4 as a whole, that looks unlikely to be... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Nov.) November’s fall in South African manufacturing production was perhaps overdue given the strength of output in previous months. The sector is still likely to have contributed positively to GDP growth... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) Data released over the weekend showed that inflation in Nigeria continued to slow in November. But we expect it to accelerate again before too long as the effect of the naira’s weakness feeds through... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read