Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q3, but this will provide little comfort for an economy were anaemic growth is becoming entrenched as the new normal. Growth for the year as a... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s retail sales figures were weaker than expected, supporting our belief that recent strong growth in the consumer sector is unsustainable. But today’s figures do at least suggest that the... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South African inflation accelerated to 4.7% y/y in October in what we believe is the beginning of a sharp inflationary spike. While tomorrow’s rate decision will be close, we expect that the SARB will... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) GDP figures for Q3 support our long-held view that Nigeria’s 2015 economic performance will be far worse than is commonly expected. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economy was just 2.8% in Q3... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Sep.) Today’s manufacturing output figures were sharply above consensus, and show that the economically crucial sector returned to growth in September. This is a welcome sign, and supports our view that the... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The sharp fall in South Africa’s October manufacturing PMI supports our view that the country’s manufacturing sector will struggle over the coming months. 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) Last month’s weaker-than-expected South African inflation reading, of 4.6% y/y, coming alongside the recent rally in the rand, makes next month’s Reserve Bank rate decision a close call. But with... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Data released today showed that Nigerian inflation continued its slow grind higher last month, reaching 9.4% y/y, its strongest rate in over two years. Given the previous slide in the naira and the... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Output (Aug.) Manufacturing and mining output figures for South Africa released today were both weaker than the figures reported last month. The downbeat data support our view that growth will remain weak over the... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The second consecutive below-50 PMI reading provides more evidence that the strong manufacturing output figures reported for July were a blip and that the sector remains mired in slow growth. 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation in South Africa fell to 4.6% y/y in August, below our expectations and those of other analysts. We still expect the SARB to hike interest rates later today, but today’s CPI figure means that... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) Data released this morning showed that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed to 3.1% of GDP in Q2. While this is welcome news, a more detailed look at the figures highlight the economy’s... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Output (Jul.) Manufacturing and mining output figures for South Africa released today were both above consensus, but both figures were distorted by the comparison with last year’s disruptions. Underlying growth in... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month provides yet further evidence of economic weakness. Perhaps the best that can be said is that the manufacturing sector’s performance so far in... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) The sharp drop in South African GDP in Q2 was the second worst outturn since the depths of the global financial crisis. Today’s data may prompt the Reserve Bank’s MPC to think twice before next month... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation in South Africa ticked up to 5.0% in July, and we expect that it will continue to rise over the coming months. Accelerating inflation and a weak rand mean that the Reserve Bank is likely to... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read