Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The unexpected improvement in South Africa’s PMI is very welcome news for the struggling economy. But we would caution against reading too much into an indicator with a mixed record of predicting real... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade Balance (Feb.) South Africa’s surprisingly narrow February trade deficit is a rare piece of positive news about the country’s economy. Elsewhere, inflation eased in Kenya and Zambia. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) Today’s surprisingly high South African inflation figure will probably lead the SARB to accelerate its programme of rate hikes. This will be very painful for an economy that is struggling to avoid... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Retail Sales (Jan.) The drop in retail sales growth is the latest figure that suggests that the South African economy lost momentum in January. We expect that GDP growth will be a below-consensus 0.5%. 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) Nigerian inflation rose to 11.6% y/y in February, largely due to the falling parallel market exchange rate. This will deal yet another blow to the controversial FX system. 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Jan.) South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided an economic contraction Q4 2015, but the January output figures suggest that GDP may fall this quarter. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) The latest Nigerian GDP figures support our view that growth in Africa’s largest economy will be much weaker than most expect. While Nigeria has been battered by low oil prices, the country’s bungled... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) The larger-than-expected South African current account deficit in Q4 of last year highlights the country’s external vulnerabilities and means the rand is likely to remain under pressure. Coming... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) Weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP data from South Africa underline the economy’s sluggish growth prospects. At the margin, we suspect that these data make it less likely that the Reserve Bank will follow up... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South African inflation accelerated to 6.2% y/y in January in what we believe is the beginning of a food price-driven inflationary spike. Elevated inflation will add to dilemma facing the SARB. 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Dec.) The better-than-expected South African manufacturing and mining data for December provided a rare piece of good news for the economy, but even so it looks like GDP growth over Q4 as a whole probably... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s January manufacturing PMI provided further bad news for the beleaguered economy. The risk of a further slowdown in GDP growth this year is growing. The survey also showed that the fall... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Nov.) The sharper-than-expected decline of South African manufacturing output in November suggests that GDP growth will disappoint in Q4. Worse, it seems that the hobbled manufacturing sector has not been... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) Data released this morning showed that South Africa’s current account deficit widened in Q3 as a result of higher domestic spending. 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Business Confidence (Nov.) The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) business confidence index retreated to near its historic low in November, providing yet another sign that expectations of an improvement in... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s November Manufacturing PMI fell to a six year low, and - while there is a possibility that the figure could be revised - we believe that monetary tightening and slow growth have... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read