Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.)

September's slightly weaker-than-expected inflation figure supports our view that the SARB will hold its key policy rate unchanged at 7.00% over the coming quarters rather than hiking rates.

19th October 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing Output (Aug)

While above very muted expectations, manufacturing output data for August suggest that economic growth slowed in Q3.

11th October 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in September, but remained relatively weak. The indicator has been unreliable lately, but the tepid result supports our view that the economic acceleration...

3rd October 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.)

August’s within-target inflation reading of 5.9% y/y makes it all but certain that the Reserve Bank will hold its key interest rate at 7.00% at its meeting tomorrow.

21st September 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

S. Africa Current Account (Q2)

South Africa’s current account position improved by more than we’d expected in Q2, but the shortfall will still probably remain relatively wide over the coming year.

13th September 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa GDP (Q2)

Strong q/q growth in Q2 mostly reflects a bounce back following the disaster of Q1. We expect that growth will be sluggish in the second half of the year.

6th September 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)

The sharp decline in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI looks worrying. But we wouldn’t panic; the survey has become a less reliable leading indicator recently.

1st September 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.)

South African inflation eased from 6.3% y/y in June to a weaker-than-expected 6.0% in July, but we still think that inflation will pick up again later this year, prompting the Reserve Bank to hike...

24th August 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (July)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped a bit in July, but it still points to manufacturing output growth of about 5.0%.

1st August 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (June)

Last month’s rise in South African inflation, to 6.3% y/y, took the headline rate further above the Reserve Bank’s target range, and both we and the Bank expect it to edge higher over the rest of this...

20th July 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing Output (May)

Strong May manufacturing figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy avoided a recession in Q2. The sector seems to be benefiting from the weak rand.

12th July 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Business Confidence (June)

South Africa’s business confidence index remained weak in June, though it rose from the all-time low in May. Other surveys – and timely activity data – suggest that the economy probably avoided a...

6th July 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)

June’s surprisingly positive PMI reading provides another sign that South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided a recession in Q2.

1st July 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (May)

The weaker-than-expected South African inflation reading for May, of 6.1% y/y, will provide welcome relief for the Reserve Bank. Barring a surprising rise in June’s inflation figure, we think the MPC...

22nd June 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

S. Africa Current Account (Q1) & Nigeria Inflation (May)

The widening of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q1 will keep pressure on the country’s currency, supporting our view that monetary policy will be tightened. Similarly, higher inflation in...

14th June 2016 · 1 min read