Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s within-target inflation reading of 5.9% y/y makes it all but certain that the Reserve Bank will hold its key interest rate at 7.00% at its meeting tomorrow. 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q2) South Africa’s current account position improved by more than we’d expected in Q2, but the shortfall will still probably remain relatively wide over the coming year. 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) Strong q/q growth in Q2 mostly reflects a bounce back following the disaster of Q1. We expect that growth will be sluggish in the second half of the year. 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The sharp decline in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI looks worrying. But we wouldn’t panic; the survey has become a less reliable leading indicator recently. 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) South African inflation eased from 6.3% y/y in June to a weaker-than-expected 6.0% in July, but we still think that inflation will pick up again later this year, prompting the Reserve Bank to hike... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (July) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped a bit in July, but it still points to manufacturing output growth of about 5.0%. 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (June) Last month’s rise in South African inflation, to 6.3% y/y, took the headline rate further above the Reserve Bank’s target range, and both we and the Bank expect it to edge higher over the rest of this... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (May) Strong May manufacturing figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy avoided a recession in Q2. The sector seems to be benefiting from the weak rand. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Business Confidence (June) South Africa’s business confidence index remained weak in June, though it rose from the all-time low in May. Other surveys – and timely activity data – suggest that the economy probably avoided a... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) June’s surprisingly positive PMI reading provides another sign that South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided a recession in Q2. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) The weaker-than-expected South African inflation reading for May, of 6.1% y/y, will provide welcome relief for the Reserve Bank. Barring a surprising rise in June’s inflation figure, we think the MPC... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q1) & Nigeria Inflation (May) The widening of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q1 will keep pressure on the country’s currency, supporting our view that monetary policy will be tightened. Similarly, higher inflation in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Today’s Q1 GDP figures were far worse than we had expected. It is now likely that Nigeria’s economy will contract over the year as a whole. 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenya Consumer Prices (Apr.) While inflation is picking up in most of Africa, April’s CPI data showed that price pressures are weakening in Kenya. We expect that this will allow the Central Bank of Kenya to cut rates by 50bp... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation eased a touch in March, but we still expect that it will rise over the duration of 2016. The current pause was mainly the result of strengthening rand. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) The sharp acceleration of Nigerian inflation is yet another sign that the country’s controversial currency and price control policies have failed. We expect that inflation will continue rising... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read