Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s inflation figures offer the first sign that inflation has peaked. We expect that price growth will weaken this year, but will remain above the CBN’s target. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is the latest indicator to suggest that the economy improved at the start of 2017. We expect that growth will accelerate this year. 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharper-than-expected decline in South African inflation – particularly core inflation – last month supports our view that the country’s monetary tightening cycle is now over. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.) The sharper-than-expected 2.0% y/y fall in South African manufacturing production in December appears to be related primarily to working day effects. The underlying trend appears to be one of very... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The significant improvement of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is a rare positive surprise. But given the measure’s mixed performance in recent months, we will wait for more data before seriously... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q3) South Africa’s current account position deteriorated again in Q3. The wide deficit is the key reason why we expect that the rand will remain under pressure in 2017. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South African Q3 GDP data showed that the economy slowed by even more than most had anticipated. While the Reserve Bank has sounded a little more hawkish over the past month, today’s weak data support... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The improvement of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in November should not distract from the fact that the measure still points to a very poor performance. All of the early data suggests that the... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade Balance (Oct.) South Africa’s trade balance improved in October, but this was driven largely by a fall in imports. This may be an early sign that domestic demand weakened. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenyan & Ugandan Consumer Prices (Nov.) The surprise acceleration of inflation in Kenya and Uganda raises a risk to our view that both countries central banks will loosen policy. But we expect that rates will still fall. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in South Africa picked up from 6.1% y/y in September to 6.4% y/y in October, but we still expect that the SARB will keep its key policy rate on hold this week. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Nigerian inflation accelerated to 18.3% y/y in October, which will put yet more pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy. We expect that the bank will hike its key policy rate from 14... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) September's slightly weaker-than-expected inflation figure supports our view that the SARB will hold its key policy rate unchanged at 7.00% over the coming quarters rather than hiking rates. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Aug) While above very muted expectations, manufacturing output data for August suggest that economic growth slowed in Q3. 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in September, but remained relatively weak. The indicator has been unreliable lately, but the tepid result supports our view that the economic acceleration... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read