Africa Data Response

South Africa CPI (Mar.)

Slowing inflation in South Africa (which dipped to 6.1% y/y in March) supports our non-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates later this year.

19th April 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained strong in March, pointing to faster growth in Q1. The survey will not, however, have fully captured the hit to confidence caused by the sacking of Pravin...

3rd April 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa CPI (Feb.) & Current Account (Q4)

The falls in South African inflation last month and in the current account deficit in Q4 (data all released today) support our non-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will lower interest rates by...

22nd March 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.)

February’s inflation figures offer the first sign that inflation has peaked. We expect that price growth will weaken this year, but will remain above the CBN’s target.

14th March 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is the latest indicator to suggest that the economy improved at the start of 2017. We expect that growth will accelerate this year.

1st March 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.)

The sharper-than-expected decline in South African inflation – particularly core inflation – last month supports our view that the country’s monetary tightening cycle is now over.

15th February 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.)

The sharper-than-expected 2.0% y/y fall in South African manufacturing production in December appears to be related primarily to working day effects. The underlying trend appears to be one of very...

9th February 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)

The significant improvement of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is a rare positive surprise. But given the measure’s mixed performance in recent months, we will wait for more data before seriously...

1st February 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

S. Africa Current Account (Q3)

South Africa’s current account position deteriorated again in Q3. The wide deficit is the key reason why we expect that the rand will remain under pressure in 2017.

9th December 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa GDP (Q3)

South African Q3 GDP data showed that the economy slowed by even more than most had anticipated. While the Reserve Bank has sounded a little more hawkish over the past month, today’s weak data support...

6th December 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

The improvement of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in November should not distract from the fact that the measure still points to a very poor performance. All of the early data suggests that the...

1st December 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Trade Balance (Oct.)

South Africa’s trade balance improved in October, but this was driven largely by a fall in imports. This may be an early sign that domestic demand weakened.

30th November 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

Kenyan & Ugandan Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The surprise acceleration of inflation in Kenya and Uganda raises a risk to our view that both countries central banks will loosen policy. But we expect that rates will still fall.

30th November 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.)

Inflation in South Africa picked up from 6.1% y/y in September to 6.4% y/y in October, but we still expect that the SARB will keep its key policy rate on hold this week.

23rd November 2016 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.)

Nigerian inflation accelerated to 18.3% y/y in October, which will put yet more pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy. We expect that the bank will hike its key policy rate from 14...

14th November 2016 · 1 min read