Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug.)

Nigerian inflation remained high in August, but we expect that it will ease over the coming months, prompting policymakers to cut interest rates.

15th September 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Current Account (Q2)

South Africa’s current account deficit was wider than expected in Q2, at 2.4% of GDP, but the big picture is that it has narrowed significantly over the past 18 months. The slightly wider shortfall is...

14th September 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (July)

South African mining data for July were weaker than expected but, taken together with the manufacturing figures also released today, it looks like the economy may have strengthened a little at the...

7th September 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained extremely weak last month. And while the survey has tended to overstate downturns in recent years, it may suggest that the economy softened in Q3.

1st September 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa CPI (Jul.)

South African inflation eased by more than we’d expected in July, raising the prospect of two 25bp cuts later this year, rather than the single cut we currently expect.

23rd August 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to an eight year low in July. The indicator, however, frequently overstates weakness, and we doubt things were that bad.

1st August 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The slowing of Nigerian inflation in June will soon prompt policymakers to loosen monetary policy. Cuts will come faster than the consensus currently expects.

17th July 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q1 & Q2)

Despite a string of political shocks, South African consumer confidence was higher in Q2 2017 than it was over most of 2016. This supports our view that the worst is over for the country’s troubled...

12th July 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing Production (May)

South African manufacturing data for May show that the sector’s contraction eased in the middle of Q2. Combined with a pickup in consumer spending, this supports our view that GDP growth returned to...

11th July 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector struggled towards the end of Q2. But we would caution against reading too much into an indicator that has become...

3rd July 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa CPI (May)

Inflation in South Africa ticked up in May, but we still expected that inflation will ease later this year, prompting the Reserve Bank to cut its key policy rate by a total of 50bps.

21st June 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Current Account (Q1)

South Africa’s current account deficit widened a touch in Q1, but remained small by recent standards. This will help to shield the rand from the effect of political shocks.

20th June 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (May)

We think that the easing of inflation in Nigeria, which slipped to 16.3% y/y in May, will pave the way for looser monetary policy this year.

15th June 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May)

Having fallen sharply in April, South Africa’s manufacturing PMI surged May. We don’t put much faith in this indicator, but today’s reading supports our view that the economy is holding up better than...

1st June 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa CPI (Apr.)

The continued fall of South African inflation – which dropped to 5.3% y/y in April – supports our view that the Reserve Bank will cut its key policy rate later this year.

24th May 2017 · 1 min read