Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained extremely weak last month. And while the survey has tended to overstate downturns in recent years, it may suggest that the economy softened in Q3. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) South African inflation eased by more than we’d expected in July, raising the prospect of two 25bp cuts later this year, rather than the single cut we currently expect. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to an eight year low in July. The indicator, however, frequently overstates weakness, and we doubt things were that bad. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The slowing of Nigerian inflation in June will soon prompt policymakers to loosen monetary policy. Cuts will come faster than the consensus currently expects. 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q1 & Q2) Despite a string of political shocks, South African consumer confidence was higher in Q2 2017 than it was over most of 2016. This supports our view that the worst is over for the country’s troubled... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (May) South African manufacturing data for May show that the sector’s contraction eased in the middle of Q2. Combined with a pickup in consumer spending, this supports our view that GDP growth returned to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun) The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector struggled towards the end of Q2. But we would caution against reading too much into an indicator that has become... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) Inflation in South Africa ticked up in May, but we still expected that inflation will ease later this year, prompting the Reserve Bank to cut its key policy rate by a total of 50bps. 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q1) South Africa’s current account deficit widened a touch in Q1, but remained small by recent standards. This will help to shield the rand from the effect of political shocks. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (May) We think that the easing of inflation in Nigeria, which slipped to 16.3% y/y in May, will pave the way for looser monetary policy this year. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) Having fallen sharply in April, South Africa’s manufacturing PMI surged May. We don’t put much faith in this indicator, but today’s reading supports our view that the economy is holding up better than... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) The continued fall of South African inflation – which dropped to 5.3% y/y in April – supports our view that the Reserve Bank will cut its key policy rate later this year. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) South Africa’s April PMI, which came in at just 44.7, provided an early sign that the sacking of Pravin Gordhan dealt a serious blow to confidence. Other business confidence figures released later... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Mar.) Slowing inflation in South Africa (which dipped to 6.1% y/y in March) supports our non-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates later this year. 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained strong in March, pointing to faster growth in Q1. The survey will not, however, have fully captured the hit to confidence caused by the sacking of Pravin... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb.) & Current Account (Q4) The falls in South African inflation last month and in the current account deficit in Q4 (data all released today) support our non-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will lower interest rates by... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read