Oil-fuelled growth to mask non-oil slowdown

GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will pick up over the next couple of years supported by rising oil and LNG output from the Gulf. However, lower oil prices will result in tighter fiscal policy in parts of the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia, and weigh on non-oil growth. Elsewhere, with ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon failing, prolonging the negative spillovers, particularly to Egypt and Jordan, which are also the two economies most vulnerable to President Trump’s tariff policies and foreign aid cuts.