Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared a few months ago. But the economy will still struggle to eke out any growth this year. And while the rest of the region is relatively insulated from the trade war, deteriorating terms of trade and tighter fiscal policy will cause growth to slow by more than most expect over the next few years. Sovereign debt problems remain concerning across much of the region. A shift to the right at upcoming elections would be received positively by investors, although even more market-friendly administrations will struggle to put debt trajectories back onto a stable path.