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Electoral forks in the road

Despite a modest acceleration last quarter, aggregate Latin America growth was still relatively sluggish – and we don’t expect a major pickup over the course of this year either. While monetary easing cycles in Mexico and parts of the Andes are nearing an end, Copom is likely to kick off its easing cycle in March – and deliver more interest rate cuts than most expect this year. The outlier is Colombia where the deterioration in the inflation picture and the fragile fiscal situation are likely to pave the way for further interest rate hikes in the coming months.