A volatile summer for financial markets How a shifting global economic and policy outlook sent tremors through equity and bond markets Recession or Goldilocks? See our US Scenarios dashboard for latest probabilities Explore here Dismiss Capital Daily Reviewing the recent round trip in markets Nearly all of the pullback in the S&P 500 since the bout of rotation in the stock market began in the wake of June’s CPI report on 11th July has now been reversed. Admittedly, the same cannot be said... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read Capital Daily Taking stock of the recent market turmoil Financial markets have generally now unwound about half of the big moves from late last week and early this week, helped by jobless claims data today soothing concerns over a US economic recession. In... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will still press ahead with another hike We're sending this Japan Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have calmed following the turmoil earlier this... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The global market turmoil and the impact on MENA Financial markets in the Middle East weren’t spared from the global sell-off earlier in the week. There could be a macro impact on the Gulf economies through the fall in oil prices, either via lower... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read Global Economics Update Financial conditions still loosening in most DMs Market turmoil has not yet led to a tightening of financial conditions in the US and most other advanced economies. That’s because borrowing costs have fallen sharply as investors have grown to expect... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read Ask an economist Why do you expect a US soft landing? What about rising credit delinquencies, high interest costs and smaller companies seeing net job losses? What would shift you to the hard landing camp? A blow-out in credit spreads? There are certainly some concerning signs for the economy in the data, which is why we’ve marked up our judgement of the probability of a recession to 27% on our 7th August 2024 US Economics Weekly Labour market cracks raise risk of hard landing The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and further rise in the unemployment rate cast doubt on the Fed’s argument mid-week that it is still too soon to loosen policy. We now expect 25 bp cuts at each... 2nd August 2024 · 6 mins read Japan Economics Update The financial stability risks from recent market moves Even though it’s difficult to identify what could have broken as a result of the recent rapid market moves, a stronger yen is a bigger threat to the health of Japan’s financial institutions than... 7th August 2024 · 3 mins read UK Economics Update Assessing the implications of the market turmoil for the UK Although the UK has clearly been caught up in the recent turmoil in global financial markets, we do not think a double-dip recession is on the cards. Nonetheless, the disorderly market reaction, if... 6th August 2024 · 5 mins read Capital Daily Is the yen’s rally – and all that went with it – over? We’re not so sure the yen’s gains are done, even though it sagged earlier today. 7th August 2024 · 5 mins read Capital Daily What to make of turnaround Tuesday in Tokyo Sentiment has improved in Asian markets today, especially in Japan where equities have rallied very strongly. We think there are a few observations worth noting of relevance for global markets. 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read Japan Economics Update FX intervention to weaken yen unlikely Japan’s government has intervened in the FX markets to weaken the yen far more often than to strengthen it. But FX interventions have become very rare over the past two decades and our sense is that... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read US Economics Update Hard landing risk rising, but not the base case Despite the weakness of the latest labour market data, we judge that a soft landing is still the most likely outcome for the economy. Nonetheless, the risk of a hard landing has increased, while the... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read Global Markets Update This feels less like 2000 than 1998, and even then … We doubt the AI-fuelled rally in global equities has burst, despite a rout in the stock market in the US after some disappointing data there last week and a plunge in Asian indices today. It feels... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read Chief Economist's Note Recession fears, market panic – Key questions on what comes next So much for the summer lull. Stock markets are in turmoil and bond yields have plunged as fears about a US recession have taken hold. For all the challenges in gauging where economies and markets are... 5th August 2024 Capital Daily Two questions (and answers) on today’s Asian market drama The yen surged today, and some Asian equity indices plunged, as investors worried about a “hard landing” in the US economy. We think there are two key questions to consider. 5th August 2024 · 5 mins read Capital Daily We doubt the US economy will stall the equity rally for long Renewed fears of a US recession have increased the chances of additional rate cuts from the Fed. But we don’t think that the US economy will stand in the way of an equity rally for much longer. 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read Event Drop-In: What to make of US recession fears and stock market turmoil 5th August 2024, 1:30PM BST Fears about US recession are fuelling volatility in financial markets, sending stock prices and bond yields sharply lower. But how justified are these fears? And do moves in asset prices point to a... FX Markets Weekly Wrap Recession fears and the dollar, lessons from 2020 & 2023 Between a dovish message from the FOMC on Wednesday and a shockingly weak non-farm payrolls report today, the dollar is ending a turbulent week on the back foot. US interest rate expectations have... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read Payrolls fallout – The spectre of US recession haunts the stock market 2nd August 2024 Listen Now
Capital Daily Reviewing the recent round trip in markets Nearly all of the pullback in the S&P 500 since the bout of rotation in the stock market began in the wake of June’s CPI report on 11th July has now been reversed. Admittedly, the same cannot be said... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the recent market turmoil Financial markets have generally now unwound about half of the big moves from late last week and early this week, helped by jobless claims data today soothing concerns over a US economic recession. In... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will still press ahead with another hike We're sending this Japan Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have calmed following the turmoil earlier this... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The global market turmoil and the impact on MENA Financial markets in the Middle East weren’t spared from the global sell-off earlier in the week. There could be a macro impact on the Gulf economies through the fall in oil prices, either via lower... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions still loosening in most DMs Market turmoil has not yet led to a tightening of financial conditions in the US and most other advanced economies. That’s because borrowing costs have fallen sharply as investors have grown to expect... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market cracks raise risk of hard landing The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and further rise in the unemployment rate cast doubt on the Fed’s argument mid-week that it is still too soon to loosen policy. We now expect 25 bp cuts at each... 2nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update The financial stability risks from recent market moves Even though it’s difficult to identify what could have broken as a result of the recent rapid market moves, a stronger yen is a bigger threat to the health of Japan’s financial institutions than... 7th August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Assessing the implications of the market turmoil for the UK Although the UK has clearly been caught up in the recent turmoil in global financial markets, we do not think a double-dip recession is on the cards. Nonetheless, the disorderly market reaction, if... 6th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is the yen’s rally – and all that went with it – over? We’re not so sure the yen’s gains are done, even though it sagged earlier today. 7th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of turnaround Tuesday in Tokyo Sentiment has improved in Asian markets today, especially in Japan where equities have rallied very strongly. We think there are a few observations worth noting of relevance for global markets. 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update FX intervention to weaken yen unlikely Japan’s government has intervened in the FX markets to weaken the yen far more often than to strengthen it. But FX interventions have become very rare over the past two decades and our sense is that... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Hard landing risk rising, but not the base case Despite the weakness of the latest labour market data, we judge that a soft landing is still the most likely outcome for the economy. Nonetheless, the risk of a hard landing has increased, while the... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update This feels less like 2000 than 1998, and even then … We doubt the AI-fuelled rally in global equities has burst, despite a rout in the stock market in the US after some disappointing data there last week and a plunge in Asian indices today. It feels... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Chief Economist's Note Recession fears, market panic – Key questions on what comes next So much for the summer lull. Stock markets are in turmoil and bond yields have plunged as fears about a US recession have taken hold. For all the challenges in gauging where economies and markets are... 5th August 2024
Capital Daily Two questions (and answers) on today’s Asian market drama The yen surged today, and some Asian equity indices plunged, as investors worried about a “hard landing” in the US economy. We think there are two key questions to consider. 5th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the US economy will stall the equity rally for long Renewed fears of a US recession have increased the chances of additional rate cuts from the Fed. But we don’t think that the US economy will stand in the way of an equity rally for much longer. 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: What to make of US recession fears and stock market turmoil 5th August 2024, 1:30PM BST Fears about US recession are fuelling volatility in financial markets, sending stock prices and bond yields sharply lower. But how justified are these fears? And do moves in asset prices point to a...
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Recession fears and the dollar, lessons from 2020 & 2023 Between a dovish message from the FOMC on Wednesday and a shockingly weak non-farm payrolls report today, the dollar is ending a turbulent week on the back foot. US interest rate expectations have... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
