India's economic future The near to long-term opportunities and risks facing the world's soon-to-be third biggest economy India Economic Outlook Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s... 20th June 2024 · 16 mins read India Economics Update Infrastructure drive likely to continue under Modi 3.0 The ramp-up in public capital expenditure in the last five years has helped to ease some of the bottlenecks that had previously acted as a constraint on India’s economy. Despite the Modi government’s... 11th June 2024 · 4 mins read India Economics Weekly Dust settling on election, MPC pendulum swinging Indian equities have ended an extraordinary week higher than where they began, which we think partly reflects the fact that investors have realised that a coalition government is not a terminal blow... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read Asset Allocation Update The implications of Modi 3.0 for India’s equity market India’s election result isn’t, in our view, reason to turn downbeat on the country’s equity market, its wobbles earlier this week notwithstanding. But with a very positive story seemingly still priced... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read India Economics Update What Modi 3.0 means for India's economy Narendra Modi will begin his third term as India’s Prime Minister with a weakened mandate and that will make the passage of contentious economic reforms more difficult. But he will still be able to... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read India Rapid Response India General Election 2024 Narendra Modi appears well on course for a third consecutive term as India’s Prime Minister according to exit polls that project another big parliamentary majority for the BJP. 2nd June 2024 · 2 mins read India Economics Weekly What to watch for in a momentous week India's general election is coming to an end and from a macro perspective the key thing for investors to watch for is whether it delivers a government that has a working parliamentary majority that... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read India Economics Weekly Is PM Modi on the backfoot? As India’s mammoth general election enters its final week, a narrative that has unfolded in the international media is a waning of popular support for Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read India Economics Update China’s threat to Indian manufacturing India has made impressive progress in raising its share of global high-end electronics exports over the past few years. But, worryingly, it has failed to capture any additional market share in the... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read Event EM Drop-In: How India’s election outcome could shape its economic outlook 4th June 2024, 3:00PM BST The results of India’s multi-week general election on 4th June aren’t expected to hold many surprises about the country’s next government, with polls suggesting Narendra Modi will win an… India Economics Update India’s geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read India Economics Weekly What would Trump’s return mean for India? With Donald Trump’s protectionist approach to trade on full display this week, we look at the implications of a possible second Trump presidency for India. While a 10% tariff on US imports could dent... 3rd May 2024 · 3 mins read Emerging Markets Economics Focus What Trump’s return would mean for EMs All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal... 29th April 2024 · 13 mins read India Economics Weekly Election begins, RBI intervention, Middle East tensions India's mammoth general election has just kicked off. Results will be announced on 4 th June and as things stand, PM Modi’s BJP looks on course for another big win. Meanwhile, the rupee fell to a... 19th April 2024 · 4 mins read India Economics Weekly Manufacturing ambitions across the political spectrum The general election kicks off in a week and manifestos are finally being released. Manifestos are rarely followed closely in India, but nevertheless it is encouraging that there is broad agreement... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read India Economics Weekly Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read India Economics Focus The general election: what is at stake? The biggest democratic exercise in history will shortly take place as India votes in its general election, starting on 19 th April. Given client interest, we are resending our Election Primer, first... 19th March 2024 · 12 mins read Event EM Drop-In: After the big vote – India’s macro and markets outlook 11th April 2024, 9:00AM BST In a big year for elections, this is the biggest. India’s general election begins on 19 th April, with nearly a billion Indians registered to vote and Narendra Modi on course to win a third term as... India Economics Weekly Election manoeuvres, hawkish RBI, Q1 Outlook The surge in the Sensex this week - to a fresh record high today - following the announcement of the BJP’s victories in three state elections is perhaps an indication that investors are confident that... 8th December 2023 · 4 mins read India Economics Update Three key points on the state election results The latest batch of state election results suggests that support for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP remains firmly intact and that it is clearly in the driving seat to secure another victory in next year’s... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s... 20th June 2024 · 16 mins read
India Economics Update Infrastructure drive likely to continue under Modi 3.0 The ramp-up in public capital expenditure in the last five years has helped to ease some of the bottlenecks that had previously acted as a constraint on India’s economy. Despite the Modi government’s... 11th June 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dust settling on election, MPC pendulum swinging Indian equities have ended an extraordinary week higher than where they began, which we think partly reflects the fact that investors have realised that a coalition government is not a terminal blow... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The implications of Modi 3.0 for India’s equity market India’s election result isn’t, in our view, reason to turn downbeat on the country’s equity market, its wobbles earlier this week notwithstanding. But with a very positive story seemingly still priced... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update What Modi 3.0 means for India's economy Narendra Modi will begin his third term as India’s Prime Minister with a weakened mandate and that will make the passage of contentious economic reforms more difficult. But he will still be able to... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India General Election 2024 Narendra Modi appears well on course for a third consecutive term as India’s Prime Minister according to exit polls that project another big parliamentary majority for the BJP. 2nd June 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to watch for in a momentous week India's general election is coming to an end and from a macro perspective the key thing for investors to watch for is whether it delivers a government that has a working parliamentary majority that... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Is PM Modi on the backfoot? As India’s mammoth general election enters its final week, a narrative that has unfolded in the international media is a waning of popular support for Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update China’s threat to Indian manufacturing India has made impressive progress in raising its share of global high-end electronics exports over the past few years. But, worryingly, it has failed to capture any additional market share in the... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: How India’s election outcome could shape its economic outlook 4th June 2024, 3:00PM BST The results of India’s multi-week general election on 4th June aren’t expected to hold many surprises about the country’s next government, with polls suggesting Narendra Modi will win an…
India Economics Update India’s geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly What would Trump’s return mean for India? With Donald Trump’s protectionist approach to trade on full display this week, we look at the implications of a possible second Trump presidency for India. While a 10% tariff on US imports could dent... 3rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What Trump’s return would mean for EMs All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal... 29th April 2024 · 13 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election begins, RBI intervention, Middle East tensions India's mammoth general election has just kicked off. Results will be announced on 4 th June and as things stand, PM Modi’s BJP looks on course for another big win. Meanwhile, the rupee fell to a... 19th April 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Manufacturing ambitions across the political spectrum The general election kicks off in a week and manifestos are finally being released. Manifestos are rarely followed closely in India, but nevertheless it is encouraging that there is broad agreement... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus The general election: what is at stake? The biggest democratic exercise in history will shortly take place as India votes in its general election, starting on 19 th April. Given client interest, we are resending our Election Primer, first... 19th March 2024 · 12 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: After the big vote – India’s macro and markets outlook 11th April 2024, 9:00AM BST In a big year for elections, this is the biggest. India’s general election begins on 19 th April, with nearly a billion Indians registered to vote and Narendra Modi on course to win a third term as...
India Economics Weekly Election manoeuvres, hawkish RBI, Q1 Outlook The surge in the Sensex this week - to a fresh record high today - following the announcement of the BJP’s victories in three state elections is perhaps an indication that investors are confident that... 8th December 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Three key points on the state election results The latest batch of state election results suggests that support for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP remains firmly intact and that it is clearly in the driving seat to secure another victory in next year’s... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
