France elections and market risk

Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election has plunged French politics into turmoil that has spilled into the bond market. As investors brace for the outcome of voting – with final results due on 7^th July – this insight from across our macro, market and property teams outlines the potential risks to the France’s debt situation and to French assets.

French elections and macro and market risk

Key election analysis

Key reads to get ready for 2025

Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets

We see more trouble ahead for French OATs

Inflation rather than growth likely to be key for EZ bonds

EZ spreads on different paths after French election

ECB overshadowed by French politics

What next for France?

Wait-and-see in markets as France avoids far-right PM

Debate over lack of ‘fiscal space’ misses the point

Second round results of France’s parliamentary election

Gridlock likely in France, ECB officials eye July pause

French election first-round relief rally might not last

First round results of France’s parliamentary election

Three scenarios for after the French election

Assessing French election risk for the euro

How might the ECB respond to a French fiscal crisis?

Q&A on French election: politics, economics, markets

French politics need not sink euro-zone stocks

Excessive deficits; lessons from Italy’s 2018 mini crisis

Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk

French bond sell-off could get worse

Political uncertainty to hit French property values

Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher

A poor week for French bonds and equities