Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The stabilisation in Russian inflation at 7.7% y/y in March was in line with expectations and adds to evidence that inflation pressures have continued to cool in recent months. Central bank governor... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (March 2024) The slightly softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for March of 3.9% y/y keeps the door open to 50bp interest rate cuts at the Copom meetings both next month and in June. But with underlying... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign default risks still high in a few places The incidence of sovereign debt distress has continued to decline across the emerging world in recent weeks, driven mainly by an improvement in global risk appetite and the corresponding narrowing of... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Rapid Response Thailand Monetary Policy Announcement Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today resisted pressure from the government to loosen monetary policy, but with growth set to remain weak and inflationary pressures very subdued, we still think rate... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: Global AI spending will drive rapid growth Taiwan will be one of the main beneficiaries of a lengthy global AI investment boom. We expect its economy to growth much faster over the rest of this decade than it did during the 2010s. 9th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s fiscal framework already on the rocks Media reports that Brazil’s government is already seeking to water down the latest fiscal rule (which has been in place for less than a year) reinforces the point we made when the rule was first... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain needs to follow Oman’s path to reduce debt fears Oman and Bahrain both recorded sharp increases in their government debt-to-GDP ratios in the second half of the last decade, but while Oman’s public finances have improved dramatically since then... 8th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar. ‘24) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 35.7% y/y in February to 33.3% y/y in March despite the near 40% fall in the pound’s official exchange rate last month. That said, the effects of the... 8th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q4) & Activity Data (Feb.) The 4.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q4 was slightly below expectations but it followed an upwards revision to growth in Q3 (to 5.7%) and suggests that the economy continued to run hot at the end of... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA weak demand, Nigeria electricity, Kenya rates South Africa’s disappointing PMI for March supports our view that the economic recovery this year will be subdued. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s reduction in household electricity subsidies will help its... 5th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Public finances now a growing concern in parts of CEE The larger-than-expected 2023 budget deficit figures released across parts of Central Europe this week underline our concerns about the fiscal challenges facing the region. The need for fiscal... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Indian bulls rage while elephants go for a walk Positive news on India's economy continues to roll in and that is being reflected in the performance of the stock market. But amid the optimism, this week we published an in-depth report highlighting... 5th April 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policy support for car sales won’t ease trade tensions The PBOC’s scrapping of the regulatory minimum down payment for car loans may help boost vehicle demand in the short run. But it won’t be enough to prevent a further increase in car exports, so... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update The economic effects of the drought in southern Africa El Niño is causing severe drought across much of southern Africa, which is likely to weigh on GDP, push up inflation and strain balance sheets. South Africa has also suffered water shortages, albeit... 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today as it looked through the recent sharp drop in inflation in March. We think a rebound in inflation in the second half of... 4th April 2024 · 2 mins read