We would be wary of reading too much into the slowdown in GDP growth from 3.5% annualised in the third quarter to 1.9% in the fourth, because the temporary spike in soybean exports boosted the former and was a drag on the latter. More generally, after a very weak first half of 2016, when GDP growth averaged only 1.1% annualised, there was a significant acceleration to an average of 2.7% in the second half, which is well above the economy’s potential growth rate.
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