Our base case points to investment activity falling by 45% this year, with Q2 and Q3 seeing particularly weak deal volumes, before a decent recovery in Q4. From a historical perspective, this would be a sharper fall than either of those caused by the 2001 terror attacks or the GFC, although it would be much shorter than the latter. In a more prolonged downside scenario though, four-quarter rolling investment activity could be down by 70% by early-mid 2021.
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