Despite the reintroduction of states of emergency in some prefectures, and renewed calls for jishuku (“self-restraint”) in many others, the steps taken by local authorities to curb the “second wave” of coronavirus cases have so far been tentative and narrow. As such, the impact on economic activity has been small. The number of restaurant goers, if anything, edged higher in July having already rebounded in June. Economy Minister Nishimura’s request in late-July for firms to ensure 70% of their employees work from home has not been heeded thus far. Morning commuter numbers on the Tokyo subway are only a third below normal levels – well above the lows during the nationwide state of emergency in April and May. And Apple Maps routing requests for driving, walking and public transport point to a further rise in mobility in July and early-August. Even if restrictions are tightened further, we still expect output to rebound by around 4.5% q/q this quarter following a roughly 8% q/q fall in Q2.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services