The US recovery has gained momentum over the past month, but tentative signs of improvement elsewhere have already faded, as shown most clearly by the latest business surveys. The US looks set to pull further ahead of the other major economies in the coming months: so far, it has shrugged off the impact of the increase in payroll taxes and across-the-board budget cuts, whereas activity has slowed sooner than even we had expected in China, and much of Europe is in a deep recession.
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