In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal...

Given our expectation that the Trump administration will push forward with plans to raise tariffs across the board, we have generally revised down our forecasts for stock markets outside the US. And...

We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These include higher...

We think that if vice president Harris wins the US presidential election next week, she would be more likely to stick to policy continuity, and EM risk premia would remain low. If former president...