China Economics Update Coronavirus: What to watch in the coming days Data due in the next week or so should give a better sense of how badly economic activity has been hit by the outbreak. And given the incubation period of the virus, the effectiveness of the... 4th February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus The Phase One deal and its impact on China The trade deal between the US and China marks an end to the first phase of the trade war. China’s pledges on imports from the US are unlikely to be met but that may not matter to the deal’s long-term... 15th January 2020 · 11 mins read
China Economics Focus China Property Handbook China’s property sector is central to its economic performance, its demand for many materials and the stability of its financial system. In this updated and expanded Handbook, we discuss the drivers... 9th December 2019 · 41 mins read
China Economics Update The PBOC’s inflation dilemma The People’s Bank is powerless to stop consumer price inflation jumping above its target without undermining its broader mandate to support growth and employment. Given this trade-off we expect the... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus The long-term impact of demonetisation Three years after the shock announcement that the bulk of India’s bank notes were being withdrawn, any benefits from “demonetisation” should be evident by now. But the promised gains haven’t... 30th October 2019 · 9 mins read
China Economics Focus Decoupling, and its impact on growth The rift that has widened between China and the US was caused by China’s emergence as a geopolitical competitor to the US, rather than the personality of Donald Trump. Decoupling will continue whether... 17th October 2019 · 20 mins read
China Economics Update US and China no closer to a lasting resolution The US is attempting to pluck low-hanging fruit first, rather than hold out for a more complete trade deal with China. But reaching an agreement on the more contentious structural issues remains an... 14th October 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update FX manipulator label to further strain bilateral relations The US decision to label China a currency manipulator is on shaky economic grounds since, if anything, the renminbi would be even weaker than it is now without policy support. But the move is another... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s next steps in the trade war China is left with few good options to hit back at the US in ways that wouldn’t be self-defeating. Rather than direct retaliation, officials are therefore likely to focus their efforts on broader... 5th August 2019 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC weaponizes the renminbi The PBOC has allowed the renminbi to fall to its weakest level in a decade in response to trade tensions. It appears to have decided that, given the increasingly dim prospects of a trade deal with the... 5th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Baoshang reverberations, WTO defeat In a Focus last month, we discussed what we see as the most plausible hard landing scenario for China: troubles at a small bank that spread to the interbank market and trigger a systemic banking... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What do the protests mean for Hong Kong’s economy? The immediate economic impact of the protests in Hong Kong will be very small. But continued erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy, which is threatened by the proposed extradition law, would undermine a key... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Weaker growth is here to stay With productivity slowing and working age populations set to start falling across most of Asia, we expect regional growth to slow to just 3.5% in a decade’s time. This compares with average growth of... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the Baoshang Bank takeover The first regulatory takeover of a Chinese bank in more than two decades is a reminder that the balance sheets of many regional lenders are far less healthy than they claim. China’s interbank market... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is the worst over for China? The domestic headwinds that have caused China’s economy to slow over the past year are abating thanks to the policy support that has put a floor under credit growth and fuelled local government... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read