China Economics Focus The 20th Party Congress The Party Congress will deliver a major reshuffle of China’s leadership but, with General Secretary Xi’s continued dominance in little doubt, it won’t result in any substantial change in policy... 11th October 2022 · 31 mins read
China Economics Weekly UN win highlights China’s “fracturing” vulnerabilities China had a diplomatic win at the UN this week, but its success also shines a light on its vulnerabilities as the global economy fractures into US and China-centred blocs. China has more supporters in... 7th October 2022 · 9 mins read
CE Spotlight The fracturing of the global economy The shocks caused by the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and US-China tensions will have a lasting impact on the world economy, reversing decades of global integration in some areas while strengthening... 6th October 2022 · 17 mins read
India Economics Focus Rupee to reverse course this decade The Indian rupee has continued its long-run trend of depreciation against the US dollar this year, taking it to a record low of 80/$. It may still weaken further in the near term. However, there are... 31st August 2022 · 17 mins read
China Economics Update China doesn’t appear to want an economic fight The trade sanctions introduced by China on Taiwan in retaliation for the visit of Nancy Pelosi are small in scope rather than serious efforts to force Taipei to shift course. China is constrained in... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Focus The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario... 2nd August 2022 · 23 mins read
China Economics Update The limitations of China’s “new infrastructure” push Spending on high-tech “new infrastructure” should result in higher returns than adding more highways and railway lines. But it is not as effective a channel for cyclical policy stimulus. And a state... 7th July 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update What impact would removal of Trump tariffs have? Cancelling all of the Trump tariffs on China would give a smaller direct boost to China’s export sector than many might think. More important would be the signal a unilateral rollback would give that... 9th June 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Why won’t the government help households? The view that policy support is best directed towards investment rather than consumption is deeply rooted in China. A few token consumer voucher schemes aside, this doesn’t seem to be changing. 8th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus What will China do with its FX reserves? In adapting to the threat of having its foreign exchange reserves frozen, the People’s Bank is likely to shift more of its portfolio into unconventional alternatives, including EM sovereign debt and... 1st April 2022 · 19 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2022 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress signal that China’s leadership is expecting much weaker growth this year than the relatively upbeat GDP growth target might... 7th March 2022 · 19 mins read
China Economics Update China stands to lose not gain from war in Ukraine As Russia becomes increasingly isolated, it will lean more heavily on China as a trading partner. That will present some opportunities for Chinese firms to take market-share from western suppliers and... 2nd March 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China can’t shield Russia from sanctions The financial sanctions that have been imposed on Russia by the West put significant practical constraints on China’s dealings with Russia even where they don’t restrict them directly. There is little... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China won’t hurt itself to help Russia China’s leadership is trying to straddle a geopolitical divide. Russia is an ally, but being seen to take its side would hasten China’s decoupling from the West. Most likely, China will support Russia... 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Olympics highlights growing rift with the West At the Beijing Winter Olympics, China is once again displaying its sporting prowess. But the international reception has been notably icier than that for the 2008 Summer Games, highlighting that China... 17th February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China-Taiwan ≠ Russia-Ukraine A Russian invasion of Ukraine would not make a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely and would not undermine the willingness or ability of Taiwan’s allies to come to its defence. 15th February 2022 · 4 mins read