China Economics Weekly Next in the spotlight: local government debt Investors sometimes talk about a ball of speculative money that rolls around China’s asset markets. There’s a ball of worry too, and it is rolling back into local government debt. The immediate... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Is Brazil joining the renminbi club? China and Brazil are taking steps to allow bilateral trade to be settled in renminbi, another sign of closer ties between the two countries following President Lula’s election. But talk of them... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly A more targeted approach to chipmaking support China is retooling its approach to strengthening domestic chipmaking capabilities. But the obstacles the country faces still look insurmountable at the high-end of the sector. Meanwhile, upcoming data... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the National People’s Congress China’s annual legislative session offers reasons for optimism and caution. On the one hand, conservative economic targets and policy settings suggest that officials are prioritising quality over... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2023 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress are more cautious and restrained than had seemed likely given the pro-growth messaging ahead of the event. That suggests... 6th March 2023 · 16 mins read
China Economics Update Rare drop in household wealth will cap recovery Bank deposits held by Chinese households have soared over the past year. But that mostly reflects a shift out of riskier assets rather than a surge in savings. In fact, our calculations show that... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Property will be part of the post-COVID revival The roots of the crisis in China’s property sector lie in the worsening long-term outlook for demand. This has not improved. But sales started the year so beaten down that a short-run cyclical... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus Unlocking India's demographic potential If it isn't already, India will soon be the world’s most populous nation. But this doesn’t mean that policymakers can simply wait for the economic benefits to arrive. The key to unlocking India’s... 15th February 2023 · 14 mins read
Climate Economics Focus The curious case of China’s climate credentials There is a touch of the Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde about China’s climate credentials, with its well-documented record of burgeoning emissions and reliance on coal standing in stark contrast to its... 31st January 2023 · 16 mins read
China Economics Weekly Brighter days ahead for the housing market New home sales have almost halved over the past couple of years but a cyclical rebound appears to be kicking off now that government policy has turned more supportive on multiple fronts. 27th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Lifting the official retirement age is not the answer The contraction in China’s population has triggered renewed discussion of what the government could do to counter the demographic drag. One popular suggestion is to lift China’s statutory retirement... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Reopening’s impact on inflation in China and abroad The shift toward living with COVID will put some upward pressure on prices in China. But the uptick in inflation will not be as large as that seen in many other countries as they emerged from COVID... 9th January 2023 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Three years on It is three years since a cluster of cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan. Chart 1 maps economic developments in China since then. The blue bars show cumulative growth since... 4th January 2023 · 12 mins read
China Economics Update What Xi’s clean sweep means for the economy Xi Jinping has removed the last vestiges of rival factions from the upper echelons of the Party, stacking the Politburo full of loyalists in a clean sweep not seen since the Mao era. With political... 24th October 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Xi wants a more self-sufficient and socialist China General Secretary Xi’s Report to the Party Congress signalled a further shift away from market-based reforms in favour of a state-led campaign to increase self-sufficiency and economic security... 17th October 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly The reshuffle of Xi’s economic team The Party Congress begins on Sunday. There’s little doubt that it will mark the start of a third term in power for Xi Jinping. What’s less clear is whether retirement norms will still apply to other... 14th October 2022 · 10 mins read