Emerging Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: Global AI spending will drive rapid growth Taiwan will be one of the main beneficiaries of a lengthy global AI investment boom. We expect its economy to growth much faster over the rest of this decade than it did during the 2010s. 9th April 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Focus Property construction correction has barely begun The drag from the unavoidable structural decline in China’s property sector has only just begun. Property sales and project starts have collapsed. But property construction activity has retreated only... 6th March 2024 · 14 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2024 The policy agenda laid out at the National People’s Congress today is a reasonably pro-growth one. The new fiscal plans are supportive, monetary policy continues to have an easing bias, and the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read
China Economics Focus Trump tariffs: round two would be more damaging Donald Trump’s previous tariffs did surprisingly little damage to China’s economy, but China may find it harder to shrug off the damage in a rematch. Mr Trump is threatening larger tariff increases if... 23rd February 2024 · 22 mins read
China Economics Focus Still unbalanced, still unsustainable Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In... 22nd January 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The economic impact of AI in emerging markets The AI revolution will make EM income convergence – or “catch-up growth” – harder as richer economies are better equipped to deploy the technology on a wide scale. It poses a particular headwind to... 2nd November 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Focus r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era: executive summary Highlighting the key takeaways from our in-depth new analysis on equilibrium real interest rates in the post-pandemic global economy. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update China is holding on to its dollars Falls in the value of China’s recorded holdings of US Treasuries tell us little about whether China is divesting from the dollar. A broader look at the data suggests that it isn’t, despite... 4th October 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China’s property sector is increasingly state-led The property downturn has left state-owned developers the dominant players in a previously privately-led sector. The state is likely to continue playing a larger role as consolidation continues around... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s weakness due to further slide in trend growth We estimate that China’s trend rate of growth has slowed from 5.0% in 2019 to 3.0% now, based on our China Activity Proxy. This is a steeper deceleration than in the years leading up to the emergence... 2nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China and Japanification: How great is the risk? China is not suffering a balance sheet recession: most private firms are not highly indebted and would borrow if they had more confidence in the economic outlook. But there are other parallels with... 24th July 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Focus India and the physical risks from climate change India’s economy is one of the most vulnerable in the world to the physical effects of climate change. Climate change alone won’t stop relatively rapid rates of growth over the coming decades. But it... 31st May 2023 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Next in the spotlight: local government debt Investors sometimes talk about a ball of speculative money that rolls around China’s asset markets. There’s a ball of worry too, and it is rolling back into local government debt. The immediate... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read