US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Feb. 2025) The sharp rebound in housing starts in February and healthy permit issuance shows that the housing market is still holding up well. Nonetheless, with tariff concerns continuing to weigh on... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Tariffs cause headache for the Bank of Canada Although the Bank of Canada acknowledged the downside risks to the economy from US tariffs this week, its accompanying communications suggest that it is cautious about loosening policy much further. 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The tariffs will continue until sentiment improves Comments from President Donald Trump and his cabinet members in the past week suggest that neither an economic downturn nor a severe stock market decline will deter the administration from pursuing... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar. 2025) The plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in March, paired with the surge in inflation expectations, indicates that consumers’ concerns about the impact of the Trump... 14th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) The imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. As a result, we now forecast weaker economic growth, with GDP expanding by just 1.0%... 11th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump tariff push descends into farce Markets reacted badly this week when President Donald Trump once again flip-flopped on imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. That's two U-turns in a month. It remains to be seen whether... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Feb. 2025) The sharp fall in home purchase mortgage applications in February confirms that the rebound in mortgage rates late last year is suppressing home purchase demand. Recent declines in Treasury yields... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariff manoeuvres, RBI shifts priorities, the long-run view The formation of a committee to assess the scope of possible tariff reductions is another sign that PM Modi is seeking to make concessions to President Trump in order to avoid being hit hard by... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q4 2024) GDP figures for Q4 2024 show that India’s economy remained fairly soft by its own standards at the end of last year. But with policy now decisively turning more supportive, economic growth should pick... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (February 2025) Our Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With GDP growth set to struggle and inflation to remain low, central banks are likely to continue to... 26th February 2025 · 0 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (February 2025) India’s economy is in the midst of a softer patch which we think will continue for a few more quarters. Headline CPI inflation is now within touching distance of the Reserve Bank’s 4% target and looks... 26th February 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore’s budget, Trump auto tariffs, BoK to cut Singapore’s budget for the upcoming fiscal year contained a number of giveaways designed to boost support for the government ahead of elections, which must be held by November. In terms of the... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Limited macro risks from weaker rupee The Indian rupee is hovering close to record lows against the US dollar and we think it will hit a new low of 90/$ by the end of the year. This presents limited macro risk: the inflation pass through... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update India’s digital economy going from strength to strength Five years on from start of the pandemic, one of the big economic legacies in India is the adoption of digital payments, driven by mobile apps and the Unified Payments Interface. This increased... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Who will be hit hardest by Trump’s latest tariff threats? President Trump looks to have abandoned the idea of imposing a flat universal tariff of 10%-20% on all imports to the US, and now appears to be favouring new reciprocal tariffs that will be imposed on... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
