US Economics Update Credit conditions remain tight The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows that, even though the banking crisis has faded, credit conditions remain unusually tight. Although the net percentage of banks tightening... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed tightening cycle done As everyone expected, the Fed increased its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, taking the fed funds target range to between 5.25% and 5.50% but, while officials are possibly still eyeing one... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Rising disability not a drag on labour supply The sharp rise in the share of the population with a disability may reflect the legacy of the pandemic. But with the rise in disability rates doing little to keep people out of work, it isn’t... 25th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Rising prime-age participation driven by women The resurgence in female prime-age participation to a record high is helping to support labour force growth, but the recent rapid pace of improvement is likely to fade soon. 17th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Boost from “excess” savings now exhausted The resilience of consumption over the past year is partly because households have been willing to save less of their income than before the pandemic, which lends some support to the idea that... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Limited scope for immigration to ease labour shortages The surge in immigration and improvement in labour supply has helped ease wage growth moderately. But, with limited scope for a further rapid recovery in the labour force, we think a sustained period... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market remains resilient The fall in job openings in May suggests that labour shortages continue to ease, although the rebound in the job quits rate implies that wage growth is set to slow only gradually. 6th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Hawkish tone at Sintra forum, particularly in Europe Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jun.) Easing financial conditions, improving consumer sentiment and the stabilisation in housing suggest that the risks of an imminent recession have eased slightly. Nonetheless, our tracking models still... 22nd June 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fed pauses, but eyes 50bp in additional rate hikes As expected, the Fed held its policy rate unchanged at between 5.00% and 5.25% today, but it made clear in the accompanying statement that pause was only to allow officials to “assess additional... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Will debt ceiling deal weigh on the economy? The debt ceiling deal constitutes a modest fiscal tightening, principally because it will guarantee the resumption of student loan repayments this summer, but we aren’t worried that the post-deal... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data show cooling labour market The April JOLTS data suggest that the gradual easing in labour market conditions continues, which is putting downward pressure on wage growth. 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling impasse likely to drag on into early June The debt ceiling stand-off will probably now drag on into early June, setting up the prospect of a near-default before a bipartisan bill is finally passed by Congress, possibly only after a more... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update SLOOS shows banks tightening credit conditions The recent turmoil in the banking sector doesn’t appear to have triggered a severe further tightening in credit conditions, but since lending standards were already being tightened to a degree only... 8th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s next move likely to be a rate cut The Fed’s new policy statement provides the clearest hint yet that the 25bp rate hike today is likely to be the last. We expect economic weakness and a sharper-than-expected drop back in core... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling uncertainty only likely to grow A bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling alongside modest cuts to government spending still appears to be the most likely way out of the current impasse. It’s possible that moderate Republicans... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
