UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) The composite activity PMIs hardly changed in November as the economy held up fairly well despite continued supply disruptions and shortages. Meanwhile, signs that price pressures continued to grow... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Markets mistaken on speed of rate hikes Although the economic backdrop has recently become less favourable for UK asset prices, we expect that the economic recovery will regain some vigour in the second half of next year, that CPI inflation... 22nd November 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Economics What if we’re wrong on inflation? This week’s data releases have made us more confident that the Bank of England will raise interest rates in December. But our forecast that inflation will fall back sharply in 2022 underpins our view... 19th November 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Oct.) The rebound in retail sales in October adds to the evidence that activity held up well in October and will raise expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates from 0.10% to 0.25% in... 19th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Oct.) The winding down of the furlough scheme helped to bring down public sector net borrowing in October. But we doubt that the public finances will get much help from faster GDP growth in the near term. 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Sep./Oct.) This labour market release is the first of two before the Bank of England’s December policy meeting and it suggests that the labour market remained tight after the furlough scheme ended. If the story... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Troubled Brexit waters ahead With speculation rising that the UK will trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the big risk is that relations between the UK and the EU sour to such an extent that parts of the whole UK... 11th November 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Sep. & Q3) The economy regained some momentum in September, but continued shortages and the drag on real incomes from higher utility prices probably mean it will soon fizzle out. That’s one reason why we doubt... 11th November 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Which measure of GDP should we believe? The divergence between the quarterly and the monthly measures of GDP have left it unclear whether the economy is still languishing at about 2.0% below its pre-pandemic level or if it is nearing that... 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Mixed messages, but BoE clear rates won’t rise far next year It is fair to say that the Bank of England’s communications on the timing of the first interest rate hike have been muddled. But the Bank has been much clearer in its warning to the financial markets... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Fiscal rules are there to be broken The Chancellor’s new fiscal rules could help to convince voters and investors of the Conservative Party’s fiscal discipline. But with eleven rules having come and gone in the past seven years and with... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Sep.) The tepid rise in consumer credit lends support to our view that economic growth slowed to little more than a crawl in September. Against the backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases and higher inflation, we... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics BoE fast out of the blocks on rates, but won’t go the distance We now think there’s a high chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates from 0.10% to 0.25% at the meeting on Thursday 4 th November. It may then raise rates to 0.50% in... 28th October 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Budget October 2021 – OBR delivers for Sunak This Budget was perhaps more notable for what the Chancellor didn’t do rather than what he did. The OBR handed Rishi Sunak a significant upgrade to its forecasts for the public finances but, while the... 27th October 2021 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Autumn Budget 2021 Checklist We are resending this Budget Checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Budget. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced... 27th October 2021 · 3 mins read
