UK Housing Market Update Arrears edge higher as BTL mortgage rates hit 6% Mortgage arrears were still low in Q2, but the number of Buy-to-Let (BTL) mortgages in early arrears increased at an alarming pace. We suspect that will continue in Q3. A growing number of landlords... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) Given the recent rise in average mortgage rates to their highest level since 2008, we are not surprised by the further deterioration in the RICS headline survey figures. And as we do not expect market... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Boost to newbuild volumes over New home construction has been surprisingly resilient to weaker demand so far this year. But that partly reflects activity being brought forward before building standards were tightened in June. With... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage rates will plateau rather than fall The lower-than-expected CPI inflation data for June probably signals the end of the upward march in mortgage rates. But mortgage rates are likely to plateau rather than fall as the Bank of England... 19th July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Revisiting our estimates of lossmaking rental properties Mortgage rates have risen to a level that could cause costs on a fifth of rental homes to exceed the rent. That is likely to lead to a significant number of forced rental property sales, which will... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2023) The narrowing in interest margins reported by mortgage lenders in the Credit Conditions Survey suggests that mortgage rates won’t fall significantly anytime soon. Meanwhile, it became more difficult... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 23) As we expected, the rise in the average quoted mortgage rate from 4.4% in May to 5.1% in June caused agreed sales and new buyer enquiries to slump. The deterioration in market conditions has left... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update An uneven hit from higher mortgage rates The shift to fixed mortgage rates and the rise in the number of homes owned outright means that while some borrowers face a sharp rise in mortgage payments other homeowners will sit out this interest... 6th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Key questions from our Climate Drop-In We recently held a Drop-in titled “Industry’s decarbonisation challenge – From aviation to property”, which you can view on-demand here. This Update addresses some of the questions we received during... 3rd July 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Refinancing risks increase The recent upward revision to our mortgage rate forecast and the fact that the majority of those that need to refinance this year are on two-year fixes means that we are now more worried about the... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (May.) The significant improvement in the RICS survey in May echoed the pause in house price falls in the past few months. But the survey also showed an increase in supply, which could make prices more... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update High immigration helps explain record rent rise High net immigration helps explain why rental growth accelerated to its fastest pace on record last year. Immigration won’t be as high this year, adding to the reasons to think that rental growth has... 30th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rise in mortgage rates will trigger renewed downturn The upward revision to our Bank Rate forecast suggests that mortgage rates will return to a similar peak as last autumn by the end of the year. That would undermine the recent pick-up in mortgage... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tight supply limits US and UK house price falls The increase in mortgage rates has been the main determinant of the size of house price falls in developed market economies. Very tight supply in the US, and to a lesser extent the UK, has also... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Stabilisation in housing markets likely to be temporary The downturn in the housing market appears to have paused in many countries in recent weeks. However, we doubt that this marks the bottom of the market. With higher interest rates yet to take their... 15th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Longer mortgage terms ease affordability constraints Borrowing over a longer period significantly reduces monthly mortgage payments. So the accelerated shift towards loans with a term of 35 or 40 years rather than 25 has probably helped to mitigate the... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
