UK Economics Upside risks to inflation continue to build We are growing more concerned about the upside risk to our inflation forecast in the coming months. That’s partly because pipeline price pressures have already risen by a bit more than we had... 8th April 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Real income hit and recession risk There are two reasons why we are not expecting the fall in real incomes triggered by the rise in a host of prices and taxes from today to lead to a recession. First, further rises in employment and... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Shift towards higher taxes and spending is here to stay Far from reducing the tax burden, the Chancellor is set to preside over the biggest tax share of GDP since 1949 under Clement Attlee's post-war Labour government. So if Rishi Sunak wants to be... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Should the BoE fear the “stag” more than the “flation”? The Bank of England appears to be putting more weight on the “stag” part of the stagflationary consequences of the war in Ukraine than the “flation” part. But our forecast that the labour market will... 18th March 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor unlikely to help households as much as some hope Those expecting the Chancellor to unveil a big fiscal support package to shelter households from even higher energy costs in his Spring statement on 23 rd March may be sorely disappointed. Our best... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics One week on, how has the war in Ukraine moved the dial? The further escalation of the war in Ukraine this week, which resulted in tighter economic sanctions on Russia and renewed surges in commodity prices, has increased the upside risks to inflation and... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics How will Russia/Ukraine influence the BoE’s rate hike plans? As it stands at the moment, we don’t think that the Russia/Ukraine conflict will delay or derail the Bank of England’s plans to raise interest rates further. That’s because the Bank will probably be a... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Russia/Ukraine and the risks to inflation If a Russia/Ukraine conflict were to materialise, the likely upward pressure on energy prices would keep UK inflation higher for longer via higher fuel prices in the near term and rising utility bills... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Braced for a US-style inflation surprise Since CPI inflation in the UK has recently been tracking CPI inflation in the US, we wouldn’t be surprised if this week’s inflation surprise in the US is followed by an upward surprise in the UK when... 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bank signals more hikes sooner rather than later The MPC's policy statement this week cements our view that interest rates will rise further from 0.50% now to 1.25% by the end of this year and perhaps a bit further in 2023. If anything, the MPC's... 4th February 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly More space to scrap NIC hike than most think With the beleaguered Prime Minister looking to win back support from his Tory MPs, one option reportedly being considered is postponing or scrapping the planned national insurance tax hike. On our... 28th January 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Economy less favourable for whoever’s in Number 10 Although it is hard to predict whether by the end of next week Boris Johnson’s reign as Prime Minister will be solidifying or crumbling, we know that whoever is in Number 10 over the next year will... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Ramifications could be bigger if PM stays than if he goes The growing uncertainty over the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's position is unlikely to dent economic activity. Arguably, though, if a leadership challenge is avoided or Boris Johnson wins it, the... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Household (budgets) to feel the heat in 2022 Against a backdrop of higher inflation, a jump in utility prices and rising taxes, household budgets will come under strain in the coming months. Indeed, we are forecasting the fastest contraction in... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2021 and two big risks for 2022 A look at our forecasts for 2021 reveals more hits than misses. While the consensus thought GDP would grow by 5.4% in 2021, we forecast that it would rise by 7.5%. We don't yet have data for Q4, but... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics The hit from “Plan B”, the MPC and better news on shortages The government’s recently-imposed “Plan B” COVID-19 restrictions mean there is a good chance that the economy contracted in December. If the pressure on the NHS increases, restrictions might be... 10th December 2021 · 8 mins read
