UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (May 2024)

While the easing in wage growth in May was broadly in line with what the consensus and the Bank of England expected, it probably won’t offset the Bank’s concerns about the stickiness of services...

18th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

CPI inflation stayed in line with the 2.0% target in June – exactly where the Bank of England thought it would be (consensus and CE forecasts 1.9%) – but the composition of inflation remains a problem...

17th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (May 2024)

The stronger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in May (consensus forecast 0.2%, CE forecast 0.3%) will be welcomed by the new Chancellor after announcing earlier this week that she will make...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Exit Polls: Labour win would create some upside to our GDP, inflation and rate forecasts

The big shift in the political landscape that appears to be delivering a Labour government with a large majority is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at...

4th July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (May 2024)

May’s money and lending data provided a bit further evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade. Together with our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 5.25%...

1st July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Q1 2024 Final)

The upward revision to Q1 GDP growth from 0.6% q/q to 0.7% q/q (consensus forecast 0.6% q/q) suggests whoever is Prime Minister this time next week may benefit from the economic recovery being a bit...

28th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun. 2024)

June’s composite PMI suggests the economic recovery lost a bit of momentum towards the end of the second quarter. And after two stronger-than-expected inflation prints for April and May, the renewed...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (May 2024)

The larger-than-expected increase in retail sales in May more than reversed the rain-driven weakness in April. And with inflation falling back to target, Bank Rate likely to be reduced soon and...

21st June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (May 2024)

May’s public finances figures delivered some better news on the fiscal position after the recent run of worse-than-expected outturns. However, they do little to reduce the fiscal constraints that will...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Jun. 2024)

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (May 2024)

The fall in CPI inflation from 2.3% in April to 2.0% in May (BoE 1.9%, consensus 2.0%, CE 1.8%) probably won’t be enough to persuade the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% tomorrow. And...

19th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Apr. 2024)

The stagnation in GDP in April (consensus 0.0%, CE -0.1%) doesn’t mean the economic recovery has been extinguished, but it’s hardly great news for the Prime Minister three weeks ahead of the election.

12th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Apr. 2024)

The stickiness of wage growth in April will be a lingering concern for the Bank of England. But with employment falling sharply and the unemployment rate climbing, we think wage growth will soon be...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2024)

While April’s money and lending figures suggest the recent rebound in the housing market is cooling and households reined in their spending in April, there was further evidence that the drag on...

31st May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Apr. 2024)

The 2.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in April was much bigger than our forecast for a 0.5% m/m fall and the consensus forecast for a 0.4% m/m decline as the unusually wet weather discouraging...

24th May 2024 · 3 mins read