Commodities Outlook

Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices

We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in...

24th September 2024 · 24 mins read

Commodities Focus

Metals: China slowdown to offset green transition

While the green transition and AI-related use will boost demand for industrial metals over the rest of this decade, we expect this to largely be offset by a substantial contraction in demand from...

19th September 2024 · 10 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Commodity prices to fall back

We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to...

27th June 2024 · 21 mins read

Industrial Metals Focus

How metals-hungry will the green transition be?

The metals-intensive nature of green technologies will add to demand for a host of industrial and battery metals, with green demand for copper and aluminium likely to grow twice as quickly as...

23rd May 2024 · 17 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Zinc on the brink of a price fall

The surplus in the zinc market will shrink a little this year, as recovering raw material supply and a pick-up in refined output is offset by a boost to demand from a cyclical recovery in China. That...

9th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Metals Chart Pack

Metals Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The strong rally in industrial metals prices seems stretched and, as a result, we expect prices to...

7th May 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Metals prices: a genuine breakout or overoptimism?

In a mixed week for commodity prices, copper topped $10,000 per tonne for the first time since April 2022. This is the latest in what has been a rip-roaring start to the year for non-ferrous...

26th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

China property contraction to hit metals prices hard

In light of our China team’s new non-consensus view that an aggressive slowdown in property sector construction seems almost inevitable in the years ahead, we have revised our price forecasts. We now...

10th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

China metals demand; EU weighing Russia metals ban

It was generally a positive week for commodity prices and particularly for industrial metals prices. All major industrial metals finished the week higher, seemingly due to some improvement in risk...

26th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Real metals prices are high and have further to rise

Compared to their pre-pandemic averages, metals prices are high even after adjusting for inflation. We think that as green transition-related demand increases and monetary easing gets underway, real...

25th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Metals Chart Pack

Metals Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Interest rate cuts across advanced economies this year will give some boost to economic activity...

3rd January 2024 · 1 min read

Industrial Metals Update

Zinc glut to shrink in 2024

Even though zinc supply growth is likely to remain solid owing to strong growth in China and easing input cost constraints in Europe, we think that those factors will be outstripped by a recovery in...

7th December 2023 · 3 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy and precious metal prices will remain volatile while there is a risk that the...

3rd November 2023 · 1 min read

Commodities Update

China PMIs suggest metals prices to hold steady

The PMI surveys released so far for China weakened in October with the manufacturing PMIs falling back into contractionary territory. We think China’s demand for commodities will be supported by...

1st November 2023 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodity prices fire up across the board

The mood was upbeat in commodity markets this week, with prices rising across all sectors. Oil stood out, with the price in the US cracking $90 per barrel for the first time this year. Higher oil...

15th September 2023 · 5 mins read