US Commercial Property Update Six key calls for US commercial real estate in 2023 Our key calls for 2023 highlight major shifts in the outlook for real estate. We expect all-property total returns to be negative for the first time since 2009. At a sector level, we expect retail to... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Faster adjustment in prime values to rising rates so far The latest MSCI data show that prime property values underperformed the wider market last year. But with the rest of the market more vulnerable to the economic recession and as MSCI values catch up... 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How did our key calls for 2022 fare? While our forecast that the economy would slow in 2022 on the back of high inflation and Fed policy tightening was right, like every other forecaster we were surprised by its extent. This threw off... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper lira correction risks stuffing Turkey rent gains Although prime property in Turkey saw strong rental gains in 2022, a slowing economy looks set to weigh on occupier demand and cause rent growth to decelerate next year. Meanwhile, the risk of a... 22nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Total returns to turn negative in 2023, led by apartments The sharp rise in interest rates this year has prompted a price correction, which is now coming through in valuation-based indices. Combined with the mild recession we are forecasting for 2023, this... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Sharper value falls to come in 2023 Property values in Scandinavia and Switzerland have taken a hit as yields jumped in recent quarters. With valuations still stretched, we are forecasting a further 50bps and 30bps of rises at the all... 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Retail better placed as yields rise Property yields have risen on the back of higher interest rates and have started to drag materially on values. We expect this to continue in 2023, as valuations are still highly stretched. Given... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Values to fall sharply as yields rise and recession hits Higher interest rates have already resulted in a sharp property repricing in 2022. And with valuations still highly stretched and rental prospects weaker given the imminent recession, we think values... 9th December 2022 · 33 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Recession to hit rental growth as yields rise The surge in interest rates in recent months has quickly been reflected in property yields, and as a result we have brought forward some of our forecasted rise in yields from 2023 into 2022. But with... 28th November 2022 · 28 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Capital values fall in most of CEE Property yield rises stepped up in Q3, causing all-property capital values to fall on a quarterly basis in the CEE markets except for Bucharest. This was despite solid office and industrial rental... 23rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls set to accelerate The sharp rise in Treasury yields this year has finally begun to feed through to the property data. Q3 investment activity fell by more than 20% on both a q/q and y/y basis, with loan originations... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Property yields jump Prime property yields rose significantly in Q3. This caused a sharp slowdown in capital value growth, even though rental growth was solid in the Scandinavian office and industrial sectors. Stockholm... 22nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail property no longer an outlier The cost-of-living crisis will have an impact on UK high streets for much of the next year. That will not be helpful for retail property rents, although given they are starting from a low base, we... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Sharpest fall in all-property values since 2009 Q1 Higher interest rates and a weaker outlook for economic activity led to a more significant rise in property yields in Q3. While quarterly rental rises remained solid, particularly for offices and... 18th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further declines in store for Paris prime retail rents Falls in Paris prime retail rents are set to continue into 2023 as weaker domestic and foreign spending weigh on tenant demand. And while the prospects for both are brighter for 2024, we think the... 11th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural change and higher rates still key to sector returns The weaker economic growth outlook will weigh most heavily on the retail and apartment sectors, where we have made the largest downgrades to our rental growth forecasts. But the relatively small size... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
