US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Feb. 2024)

Existing home sales rose in February which we think largely reflects the sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But borrowing costs have been rising so far in 2024, which in the near...

21st March 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Housing Starts (Feb. 2024)

The strong rebound in housing starts last month confirmed January’s slump was a weather-related blip. Although we expected starts to bounce back, February’s data were even stronger than we had...

19th March 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Southern house price outperformance to last

The national average house price has risen by nearly 50% since the start of the pandemic, but that masks a lot of regional variation. The rise in house prices in southern metros has been even larger...

18th March 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover

A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the...

15th March 2024 · 18 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Rental market continues to contract

The more granular detail of mortgage lending in Q4 published by the Bank of England this morning added to the evidence that the Buy-to-Let (BTL) sector is contracting. Meanwhile arrears increased, but...

12th March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (Feb. 2024)

February’s mortgage applications data show rising mortgage rates put an end to what had been the start of a fairly promising recovery, following the low for applications in October 2023. We think this...

6th March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

No end in sight to rising house prices

Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ will continue to curb home moves. As a result, we only anticipate a trickle of new resale supply coming onto the market over the...

5th March 2024 · 15 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse

A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024.

28th February 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec. 2023)

Another small rise in house prices in December suggests the extremely backward-looking data are still capturing a slowdown in price growth following the October peak in mortgage rates. That’s mainly...

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US New Home Sales (Jan. 2024)

The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year helped new home sales regain some more momentum in January. But so far the rebound has been slightly slower than we were anticipating. Looking...

26th February 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Larger mortgages challenge weak house price forecasts

The fact buyers are using lower mortgage rates to borrow more, rather than spend less on repayments, is a major challenge to the view house price growth will be weak in the years ahead. If there has...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Jan. 2024)

The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year was the catalyst for existing home sales rising in January. But borrowing costs have risen again in recent weeks, which in the near term...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Single and multi-family construction on different paths

Following the huge fall in multi-family starts in January, we suspect the apartment sector will continue to be a drag on new development this year. But construction of single-family dwellings will...

19th February 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Jan. 2024)

Housing starts fell by the largest amount since April 2020 in January, led by a huge drop in multi-family starts. We suspect the multi-family sector will continue to be a drag on new development this...

16th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Have we reached the end of the housing correction?

Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this...

14th February 2024 · 17 mins read