US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The 1.5% m/m fall in existing home sales in September showed that rising mortgage rates continued to weigh on housing market activity. Given the recent step-down in mortgage applications as mortgage... 20th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) September’s decline in starts supports our view that last month’s increase was a one-off and starts will fall further in the coming months. We expect the rise in mortgage rates to near 7% to continue... 19th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices begin to fall A deterioration in the economic outlook and renewed rise in mortgage rates to a 16-year high in September means the housing market is set for a further slowdown. We estimate that mortgage payments as... 14th October 2022 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices to fall by 8% Against a backdrop of higher mortgage rates, a weaker economy and prices falling earlier than expected, we have cut our forecast and now expect a peak-to-trough fall in house prices of 8%, down from... 6th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The sixth consecutive month of falling home purchase activity in September was driven by a sharp rise in mortgage rates to 6.75% at the end of the month. With a significant easing in credit conditions... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Market uncertainty pushes up mortgage rates An upward revision to our 10-year Treasury yield forecast and a widening in spreads have led us to upgrade our mortgage rate forecasts. We now expect the 30-year fixed rate will stay close to 6.5% for... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Jul./Aug.) The fall in prices reported by the FHFA in July supports our view of a sustained decline over the next 12 months. With mortgage rates rising to above 6% in September, we think it is only a matter of... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) We doubt the smaller 0.4% m/m fall in existing home sales in August marks a floor for activity. Indeed, it is line with the levelling off in mortgage demand seen in July as the rise in mortgage rates... 21st September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) Housing starts surprised on the upside in August, rising for the first time in six months. But we still expect them to fall further this year as stretched affordability continues to weigh on new home... 20th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Home purchase applications fell for a fifth consecutive month in August, leaving them down by 40% from their high in January. With mortgage rates once again rising and against a backdrop of stretched... 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun.) House price growth hit the buffers in June, with Case-Shiller and FHFA reporting a sharp slowdown in month-on-month gains. Higher mortgage interest rates have stretched affordability and cut housing... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Foreclosure rate headed for a small bump With the vast majority of mortgage borrowers protected by fixed rates, it is not a surprise that the early delinquency rate has risen only marginally since the start of the year. And our forecasts for... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) New home sales dropped sharply again in July on the back of rising mortgage rates. Stretched affordability will continue to weigh on housing market activity over the second half of the year. We now... 23rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) Higher mortgage rates led to another fall in existing home sales in July, which are now down by 26% from their peak in January. We expect a further fall of close to 5% by end-2022 to 4.6m annualised... 19th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Increase in build-for-rent won’t derail SF rent growth Surging demand for single-family homes has revived institutional investor interest in the single-family rental (SFR) market. With few homes available to buy, interest in build-for-rent (BFR)... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
