US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales experienced their largest drop in nine months in November, as October’s spike in mortgage rates fed through to sales. But mortgage rates have since dropped back and are likely to... 21st December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Single-family housing starts continued to fall in November as weak new home demand weighed on homebuilder confidence. We expect this to push starts down to a trough of 650,000 annualised in the coming... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales to remain weak, despite fall in mortgage rates A fall in mortgage rates from 20-year highs supported the first rise in home purchase demand in eight months in November. Given that mortgage rates are likely to continue to trend lower from here... 14th December 2022 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Update Single-family rental growth set to fall back to earth The single-family rental market has been on a roll since the GFC and the pandemic provided a further boost. Nonetheless, while it may hold up slightly better than multifamily over the next year or so... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) A fall in mortgage rates from recent 20-year highs helped home purchase applications rise for the first time in eight months in November. However, while we expect mortgage rates to continue to trend... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Demand for all housing tenures to drop back Our forecast for a drop in house prices means renting looks a better option than buying for any holding period under 10 years. While this will encourage some potential buyers to rent instead, we doubt... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep.) A deterioration in affordability helped the Case-Shiller house price index to fall for the third consecutive month in September. The FHFA reported a small rise in prices, but we think more falls are... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update How will banks respond to falling house prices? Banks are likely to tighten credit conditions over the next year to protect themselves from house price falls. But their more cautious approach to lending in this cycle means we don’t think they will... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) New home sales have levelled off in recent months, but leading indicators support our view that sales will fall a little further by the end of the year. Looking ahead, we expect stretched... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) A renewed rise in mortgage rates led to the largest month-on-month decline in existing home sales since February. As the impact of higher rates continues to feed through in the coming months, we... 18th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) Single-family starts fell to 855,000 annualised in October which was much stronger than what was implied by the low level of homebuilder confidence. We expect further declines in new home sales to... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rental market conditions begin to ease The small increase in vacancy in Q3 supports our view that the rental market is turning a corner and makes us increasingly confident in our call that rents will fall next year. Conditions remain... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Sales to slump and prices to fall We expect mortgage rates will hold close to 7% over the remainder of the year, leaving affordability at its worst since 1985. That will lead to another sharp fall in activity. As the economy dips into... 8th November 2022 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) On the back of a rise in mortgage rates to above 7%, home purchase applications took another step down in October. That points to further declines in home sales in the coming months. With mortgage... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) The 10.9% m/m fall in new home sales in September partly reversed last month’s surprise jump. But they are still out of lockstep with both buyer traffic and mortgage applications. Those indicators... 26th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug.) Both Case-Shiller and the FHFA reported an acceleration in month-on-month house price falls in August. With mortgage rates rising to a 20-year high in October and the economy set to enter a recession... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
