US Commercial Property Update Which sector would be hit hardest in a deeper recession? Our current view is that we see a mild recession in H1 2023, but if we were to see a more substantial drop in GDP, we think the extra downside impact would be felt most in the apartment sector. Indeed... 17th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Renters living alone explain tight rental market The recent surge in rental growth to a record high has been widely reported, but the usual explanations are unsatisfactory. Population indicators don’t suggest a sudden rise in demand, and there is... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rising vacancy will cut London office rents Even as Central London office vacancy rates rose to a 12-year peak in Q3, annual rental growth ticked-up to three-year high. That marks a reversal from the situation prior to COVID-19, when a tight... 15th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2022) Consensus forecasts for 2023 have been downgraded pretty sharply since the Spring, but we don’t think they have gone far enough. While the consensus is predicting total returns of nearly 4% next year... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Barcelona prime offices to underperform Madrid Spanish office rental values are expected to be harder hit than the euro-zone average as the looming recession weighs on occupier demand and higher interest rates push up yields. However, at a market... 9th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Sales to slump and prices to fall We expect mortgage rates will hold close to 7% over the remainder of the year, leaving affordability at its worst since 1985. That will lead to another sharp fall in activity. As the economy dips into... 8th November 2022 · 18 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does recession mean for German prime offices? German prime office rental growth is expected to slow sharply next year as the economy experiences the deepest recession in the euro-zone. Even so, we don’t expect rental growth to underperform as the... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Small fall in apartment rents as recession bites We expect a small fall in apartment rents next year, as stretched affordability and stagnant employment hit demand while completions surge. But as job growth recovers and the vacancy rate drops back... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Spike in mortgage rates to trigger price correction The jump in market interest rates following the ill-advised “mini” budget has forced quoted mortgage rates up to over 5%, a level not seen since 2009. That will turn the slowdown in demand already... 31st October 2022 · 25 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) The RICS Q3 survey indicated confidence has continued to fall from last quarter, as occupier sentiment turned negative for the first time in 2022. With a US recession looking likely early next year... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3) The slowing economy and cost-of-living crisis are now having a clear impact on occupier demand, with surveyors reporting the first drop since the start of 2021. That has fed through to rent and... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Helsinki office vacancy to edge higher Helsinki office vacancy jumped in Q3 and is likely to trend higher over the next couple of years as occupier demand weakens, completions rise and there are fewer office-to-residential conversions. As... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial set to underperform Industrial demand is relatively well-placed to weather the upcoming recession. Vacancy is low going into the downturn and the gradual shift to online shopping will continue. It should therefore be the... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Athens rent growth to slow but will outpace euro-zone We have downgraded our expectations for Athens prime rental growth over the next two years on the back of a weaker outlook for economic activity. However, with the Greek economy still expected to be... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Total returns see worst month since Brexit vote The rise in interest rates and upcoming recession are leading to a rapid turnaround in commercial property performance. Rental growth is starting to ease, particularly in consumer-facing sectors such... 21st October 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone all-property rents to stagnate next year The deep recession faced by the euro-zone in the coming year will cause a sharp slowdown in prime rental growth, which we now expect to drop to 0% at the all-property level next year. We don’t think... 20th October 2022 · 3 mins read
