Property Yields

Europe Commercial Property Update

Barcelona prime offices to underperform Madrid

Spanish office rental values are expected to be harder hit than the euro-zone average as the looming recession weighs on occupier demand and higher interest rates push up yields. However, at a market...

9th November 2022 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Industrial set to underperform

Industrial demand is relatively well-placed to weather the upcoming recession. Vacancy is low going into the downturn and the gradual shift to online shopping will continue. It should therefore be the...

26th October 2022 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

Total returns see worst month since Brexit vote

The rise in interest rates and upcoming recession are leading to a rapid turnaround in commercial property performance. Rental growth is starting to ease, particularly in consumer-facing sectors such...

21st October 2022 9 mins read

Event

US Real Estate Drop-In: What recession will mean for real estate returns

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With a US recession looming, Kiran Raichura and Andrew Burrell held a briefing on the impact of weaker growth on commercial real estate returns and answering your questions.

US Commercial Property Update

Structural change and higher rates still key to sector returns

The weaker economic growth outlook will weigh most heavily on the retail and apartment sectors, where we have made the largest downgrades to our rental growth forecasts. But the relatively small size...

14th October 2022 3 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

House prices begin to fall

A deterioration in the economic outlook and renewed rise in mortgage rates to a 16-year high in September means the housing market is set for a further slowdown. We estimate that mortgage payments as...

14th October 2022 10 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Larger fall in euro-zone capital values on the cards

Recent revisions to our euro-zone interest rate and bond yield view suggest there is upside risk to our forecasts for prime commercial property yields. With the deteriorating economic outlook also set...

7th October 2022 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Property capital values set to fall by 15%

Looser-than-expected fiscal policy following the mini-Budget means we now expect Bank Rate and gilt yields to be higher. All else equal, that would push the spread between the 10-year yield and all...

4th October 2022 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Dallas offices set to lead the pack for rents and returns

The overriding story this quarter is that although weak demand and steady inventory growth in the next couple of years will push up vacancy in many metros, we still see asking rents growing solidly as...

23rd September 2022 14 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

Yields make decisive move up

All-property yields saw a large rise in August, as concerns around valuations increased. (See Chart 1.) And, with the energy support package set to boost interest rates and the economy probably...

22nd September 2022 8 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Phoenix knocked off top spot by southern markets

We expect a sharp slowdown in apartment rental growth across the board, as job growth slows, affordability constraints bite and an influx of supply pushes up vacancy. But some markets will perform...

16th September 2022 15 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Which apartment markets look most overvalued?

A forward-looking fair value analysis of the 17 apartment metros that we forecast suggests that Phoenix and the Western markets look most overvalued. This insight underpins the changes to our yield...

14th September 2022 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Energy price cap worsens the property outlook

By boosting real disposable incomes, the energy price cap will give some support to commercial rents, particularly in consumer-facing sectors such as leisure and retail. However, that benefit needs to...

14th September 2022 3 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

House price growth expectations turn negative

Stretched affordability continued to weigh on housing market activity in July and August, leaving mortgage applications for home purchase down by 40% from their high in January. A renewed rise in...

9th September 2022 12 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

All sectors overvalued despite rise in property yields

Despite a rise in property yields, increases in alternative asset yields led to a further deterioration in European property valuations in Q2. (See Chart 1.) While industrial and office valuations...

2nd September 2022 6 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Another deterioration but valuations may have troughed

Despite a stabilisation in property yields, valuation scores fell again in Q2 on the back of further rises in alternative asset yields. Apartment and industrial pricing look most stretched, but also...

26th August 2022 7 mins read